Between ten and five thousand years ago, nomadic people adapted farming in several geographical regions of the world. Around three thousand years ago, cultivation became much popular and provided ample food throughout the year to farmers, and permanent houses with fireplaces protected them from adverse weather and wild animals. These facilities paved the way for a great population explosion. At the same time, farming exposed people to pets, rodents, mosquitoes, houseflies and parasites. All these factors together initiated the outbreak of new diseases such as cholera, tuberculosis, typhoid and plague. Soon, priests began to cure the sick with the help of worship, rituals, magic and herbal drugs.
Apart from bodily diseases, population explosion also instigated social evils such as poverty, inequality, injustice, crime and exploitation; consequently, the majority of people began to lead a miserable life no better than hell. For instance, two thousand five hundred years ago, more than half of the urban population of the world was slave. Around this time, several great prophets such as Moses, the Buddha and Jesus invented the causes and remedies of human sufferings.
For example, Moses suggested ten morals, sacrifices and prayers to protect people from their miseries. The Buddha was the first to propose that human miseries were the punishments of karma, the sins committed in the previous births. He also suggested certain morals to protect people from the miseries. Jesus proclaimed that possession of demons caused the diseases. These masters were designated as prophets after their demise.
Many contemporary priests transcribed the prayers, rituals, myths, allegories and morals preached by these prophets. The ancient scriptures, such as the Vedas, the Bible, the Buddhacharita and the Avesta, were the compilations of such writings. These books advised worship, sacrifices, magic or morals to eradicate human miseries, and the suffering masses had no option but to follow the prescriptions. These holy scriptures fashioned the organized religions of today.
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I agree that protection from diseases was one of many factors.
I agree with most of what you say though I think Buddha wasn't the first to speak of Karma.
Jesus and Moses did not exist. There is no historicity of either outside myth. Christianity was and remains a meme complex born in antiquity created as a defensive mechanism against its naysayers. It has since been a militancy of the highest order and provenance.
From what I've read it may be inaccurate to say that Jesus and Moses didn't exist. There may have been some real people on whom the Christian mythology is based. One person's theology is another's mythology (and vice versa).
'Theology' is one of many words invented by religionists to disguise the fact they are pushing superstition. They wouldn't get so far calling prayers 'incantations', or referring to religions as 'cults'. However, truth will out where there is free speech and expression.