The Face of Brexit?

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ZeffD's picture
The Face of Brexit?

Mr Farage, (UKIP MEP) is a leading figure in the debate on Brexit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY
To paraphrase Nigel Farage: We know Nigel. We don’t want Nigel and the sooner he’s put out to grass the better.

I was tempted to vote Brexit, but I couldn't vote for leadership like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.

In 2015 Boris was elected as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, stepping down as Mayor the following year and becoming a prominent figure in the Brexit campaign.
Quote Boris: “If I am fortunate enough to win [Mayor] I will need four years to deliver what I have promised. And having put trust at the heart of this election, I would serve out that term in full. I made a solemn vow to Londoners to lead them out of recession, bring down crime and deliver the growth, investment and jobs that this city so desperately needs. Keeping that promise cannot be combined with any other political capacity.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/01/05/the-promises-boris-johnson-ha...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/four-jobs-boris-johnsons-tax-7734723

Either is MUCH better than Trump. Mr Farage seems to have moderated his speech.

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mykcob4's picture
I can't agree with the

I can't agree with the British that want to leave the EU. That would like Georgia trying to become a seperate nation in the USA! Britain is a strong nation but they are not as strong as the EU and the pound isn't as strong as the Euro.
I understand wanting autonomy and independence, but the whole idea of the EU was to compete with China, Russia, and US world economies.
DATA:

http://data.worldbank.org/region/EUU

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF...

The EU GDP is about 18 trillion the US GDP is about 16.77 trillion. China GDP is just under 10 trillion.

Given the real numbers it doesn't make sense to leave the EU, but instead to FULLY commit to it.

Nyarlathotep's picture
I have a hard enough time

I have a hard enough time following USA politics. That being said: UKIP scares me. In my very uninformed opinion it seems like what the tea party would be (if the tea party was a real party).

ZeffD's picture
Thanks, I wondered what views

Thanks, I wondered what views from abroad might be. I thought maybe it was believed to be of little consequence to anyone outside Europe. The US election is very important to us here in Europe but we have our own problems, as usual. Happily, it's a more globalized world and what happens on one continent increasingly affects another.

Nyarlathotep's picture
Oh continuing with my

Continuing with my (perhaps dubious) hobby of using bookmakers to predict political outcomes:

Remain: 1/4
Leave: 3

However this is a single bookmaker (the USA politics stuff I post is an average of a couple dozen bookmakers).

mykcob4's picture
This Brexit is a big deal to

This Brexit is a big deal to the world. The torries in the UK have lost their collective minds. If the UK leaves the EU it means a weaker EU, a weaker UK and a weaker NATO. The USA needs the UK to be strong in the world economy. It needs the EU to be strong in the world economy. No one can "stand alone" in today's world, economically of militarily. There are basically 10 economic markets: The USA/Canada/Mexico, South and Central America and the Caribbean, Western Europe, Eastern Europe (Russia), China, The rest of Asia, India, The Arab states, Africa. And really there are only 4 real economic markets. The USA, Western Europe, China, and the rest of Asia. So if the EU goes down 25% of the world would be in financial ruin, thus dragging down the rest of the world. If the UK leaves the EU that leaves France and Germany holding up the entire weight of the EU. It would surely fail.
Italy, Greece, Turkey, and the rest of the EU are worthless messes economically.

Sir Random's picture
Let me go watch the DOW and

Let me go watch the DOW and wait for the inevitable stock market crash..........

AND WILL SOMBODY GET THESE KONG DAMN BUTTONS AND SHIT OUT OF MY FACE WHILE IM TYPING ON MY PHONE? ........

charvakheresy's picture
@mykob4 - I guess thats why

@mykob4 - I guess thats why Britain wants to secede from the EU. They believe that they are carrying the dead weight of failed economies and expect their prospects to rise post exit.

It is true that the european economy will suffer a great blow if Britain withdraws and so by consequence the world markets, but sheltered economies like India, China and South East Asia and Saudi will not face much upheaval. The brunt shall be borne by west europe.

I don't know how it would affect america and what is americas opinion on this matter. As far as I had though america would benefit more from brexit ? I might be wrong, Please let me know

mykcob4's picture
It effects the USA a great

It effects the USA a great deal. The USA is based on being able to conduct business with strong economic markets. The Brexit causes initially the EU AND the UK to drop significantly economically. Thus the USA will suffer because those economies will not be able to trade at the level that they did as a united market. It means new negotiations in trade. The upheaval will causes markets to drop. It means China, India, and Asia will fill in where the EU fails. Given the fallacy of fair markets in those areas means a superficial trade scenario. It's a bubble growing and destined to burst. It generates a possibility for a world economic depression that will rival anything that has happened in the past.
Russia is a superficial speculation market. The same in China, India, and the rest of Asia. Only the USA, the UK, Germany, France have real economies. Thus if you knock out the UK as a pillar of the world economy you will collapse the entire world economy. It's a big deal and dangerous. The conservatives in the UK are dead wrong. Just like the conservatives in the USA they are driving income to the elite and top 1% of the populace. The inequality will cost the world dearly. The economic strength of the world is based on a strong middle class. Brexit is a tactic to cripple the British and EU working class. The propaganda that the pro-Brexit torries is just a distraction and isn't based in reality. The economy is a world economy. British independence from the EU is a fallacy. The UK economy cannot exist without the EU economy. Immediate effects are inflation in the EU and the UK. Workers in the EU and the UK will lose buying power and thus will shrink the respective economies in the UK and the EU. That will cause a ripple effect across the world. Given the fact the Russia, China, India, and the rest of Asia have a superficial economy, a false economy AND the fact that those areas don't care about the people in those nations, the entire world will suffer significantly. It is a war on the middle class.

ZeffD's picture
I basically agree with Myke

I basically agree with Myke and Charvak. I don't think Sir R is serious, but there was a statement (I think by the head of the Fed Reserve) which said that a Brexit will impact the World Economy, but won't cause a recession in the USA. Brexit might cause a recession in Britain and even in Europe, but that is the least of it. The effect really isn't known as no big country has left the EU before, so it's a leap in the dark.
The biggest danger of a Brexit is that there are other discontents in the EU and it might be the first of a domino effect, especially if Brexit were seen to benefit the UK.
The main difference in the British view and the Franco-German one is that the UK is quite happy with a 'two tier' Europe and an 'a la carte' approach. The Franco-German approach is much favored by the USA, perhaps Australia and others outside the EU. Their approach aims at 'Ever Closer Union' a very important EU term that is in the prime EU Treaties. Britain has a sort of 'opt-out' on that. I think the UK's approach is the correct one, but my explanation for it isn't short. In essence, it amounts to the fact that the 'carry on regardless' attitude of the Franco-Germans isn't working. It is a very top-down approach that has led almost to the collapse of the Euro and of the Greek economy. A bottom-up approach is needed too.

ZeffD's picture
(P.S. Well done for

P.S. Well done for distinguishing between the EU and Europe. Some European countries are in the European Economic Area (EEA) but not in the EU. Some are in both. Some are in one or the other and some (e.g. Switzerland) are in none. All are affected by the Treaty of Rome (EU Treaties in general. There is no EU Constitution). So, Switzerland has to comply with most of the rules for the EU and EEA but has no say in what those rules are. If Switzerland can do that (one argument runs), why not the 6th largest economy in the world?

mykcob4's picture
Britain destined for

Britain destined for depression because of Brexit. Stocks crashing, no low interest loans to the British banks, high interest rates, inflation, the British pound weakening and devalued. This political move by the torries is a disaster. The British pound is now worth $1.36 against the US dollar. Cameron will probably resign.

mykcob4's picture
Britain destined for

Britain destined for depression because of Brexit. Stocks crashing, no low interest loans to the British banks, high interest rates, inflation, the British pound weakening and devalued. This political move by the torries is a disaster. The British pound is now worth $1.36 against the US dollar. Cameron will probably resign.

ZeffD's picture
I think it is time for calm

I think it is time for calm and carry on. Everyone knew there would be this economic downturn in the short run. Cameron has offered to resign and said he should do so before the Tory Party Conference (Oct 2016). That is just politicking as the alternative may be Boris.

This might be the best thing for Europe. Hopefully, it will stop the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and bring about the changes in the EU many have been calling for.

It isn't just about the economy. Maybe now there will be something done about the "democratic deficit" in the EU. The UK is still in the EEA and as Mr Cameron has said we must ALL now make this work...
https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea
The growth of right-wing parties has to be countered somehow. Uniting European peoples is the aim, not just creating dysfunctional and inefficient institutions. (The EU still can't decide on a capital city and spends £millions moving EU Parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg each month.) Increasing the political unity only at the highest level without the economic and other convergence that everyone had once agreed was a prerequisite for political convergence wasn't achieving greater unity. Nor was it providing the greater economic prosperity it implies. (Greece, Euro and the rise of extreme parties). There could be far more damaging consequences for Europe than merely a Brexit. This could be the shot-in-the-arm the EU needs. It depends on what happens next.

It doesn't affect NATO. There will be no legal vacuum or political instability. Change has to happen by some means and in a timely way as lack of change (too much stability) can also be a bad thing.

One of the things to learn from this is about politicians scaremongering. If Mr Cameron, Mr Major, Mr Junker, et al had stopped blathering about us taking a momentous decision on behalf of future generations and had pointed out things like the loss of our AAA credit rating this Brexit probably wouldn't have happened. We can apply to rejoin the EU at any future date.

People might think about when referendums are appropriate and what they are meant to achieve too.

The best thing is to keep Europe working together.

watchman's picture
An epic act of self

An epic act of self immolation .....

a victory for the snake oil sales men

a triumph for hope over experience......

for fantasy over reality.......

there is a very rude awakening coming ...

(Zeff ....I trust you were joking when you said ,"We can apply to rejoin the EU at any future date". ...... I can tell you now exactly what the EU's two word answer will be)

Nyarlathotep's picture
I can't believe it won at 4/1

I can't believe it won at 4/1 odds. Heh, should have bet! I wonder why the polls were so off?

jdrose's picture
Because the polls are rigged!

Because the polls are rigged! Does it take a heathen believer to figure that out? Can't wait for Nov 8th. 2nd American Independence Day!

ZeffD's picture
(Zeff ....I trust you were

(Zeff ....I trust you were joking when you said ,"We can apply to rejoin the EU at any future date". ...... I can tell you now exactly what the EU's two word answer will be)

I have a high regard for you Watchman, but perhaps your words say more about you than about people in general? You might be correct that Mr Junker and others will react that way.

Lord Jones made the point today that if Remain had won we would expect Leave supporters to accept the decision and try again to make the EU work from within. It is incumbent on us to react as positively.

Supposing that your opinion is correct and 'you're out, you're out' is the general view in the EU establishment, what does that say about them? In that case, we were right to leave. I am trying to build a European community that attracts and rewards members, not punishes those who dare leave. Supporting democracy involves everyone trying to make democratic choices work and not sulking.

(By-the-by, the £ has recovered slightly already and the one ratings agency who say they will downgrade from AAA hasn't yet done so. Article 50 isn't yet invoked. I'll just watch for now to avoid any unjustified conclusion).

mykcob4's picture
Well Putin is happy the

Well Putin is happy the biggest glue of the EU has left and leaving a fracture EU. Just what Putin wanted. This leaves Russia in a very strong position to leverage other nations. The EU is weak so he can force his way into markets that he couldn't before.
It's a disaster for democracy, for justice, and peace. If the stupid conservative wackos in the UK think that this is a good thing then they have another thing coming. There will be war over this act, mark my words. How big and to what extent remains to be seen. Putin will act out and he doesn't care about blood shed. This Brexit act has embolden him. He wants Trump to win so he can be even stronger.
Europe can only compete economically and militarily if it sticks together. the UK compared to the rest of the world is very small. It isn't the empire it once was and never will be. They just reduced their significance in the world by, oh I don't know....100%.
Great job morons. I mean what the fuck were you thinking. Watch all your retirement evaporate. Stupid, just stupid. The USA will survive but the UK will sink into turmoil.

watchman's picture
ZeffD.....

ZeffD.....

"perhaps your words say more about you than about people in general? ".....

Indeed...perhaps they do.........

but then again...

"'Get out, we voted leave' Muslims and Poles targeted with racist abuse after Brexit"

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/525525/Vote-leave-Brexit-EU-...

or ....

"Muslim women targeted for abuse after EU referendum vote"

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/racist-brexit-blowback-muslim-women-targeted-ab...

or even .....

"I asked a question about Brexit on national TV. Cue the racist backlash"

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/14/brexit-farage-raci...

Just a random sample you understand ..... but it does illustrate my point.....(and to a lesser extent mykob4's also..) the turkeys have just voted for christmas. ... turning their backs on agricultural subsidies , development funds for deprived areas , funding for infrastructure projects even funds for flood and coastal defences..... but no......its apparently far more intelligent to be able to say to someone (born in these islands) to "go home" ...than to benefit from these (obviously unwholesome ) funds.

No...I'm not sulking ..... but I am a little peeved ,to say the least , at the first blossoming of our newly "un-european" citizenry ...... I'm afraid I'm with mycob4 on this one..... what was the line from Forrest Gump ? .....oh yes....."stupid is as stupid does" ....

and this was xenophobic idiocy of the first order.

just a small point......

"I am trying to build a European community that attracts and rewards members, not punishes those who dare leave. "

and just how are you building anything by leaving ?...

Nyarlathotep's picture
Just seems to re-enforce my

Just seems to re-enforce my very "armchair" view that UKIP is the "for reals" version of the tea party.

mykcob4's picture
No doubt Ted Cruz, Sarah

No doubt Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachman would all fit right in there.

ZeffD's picture
Sounds reputable doesn't it?

Sounds reputable doesn't it? Perhaps The International Business Times should be treated with far more caution than a Daily Mail article....
http://www.thethinkingatheist.com/forum/Thread-Isis-beheads-4-year-old-girl

Not that your point isn't taken and its a reasonable one, W, but there are far more serious issues here. To judge racism or prejudice to be a major cause of Brexit would be a grave error. As would talking in stereotypes.

UKIP has nothing to do with the Tea Party and is nothing like it, but a few random examples on the Internet indicating it is can easily be found. (Try Fareed Zakaria,he's always looking for international trends. Maybe he knows more than me, I just live here).

Watchman may well prove near the mark when he wrote that he can tell us what "the EUs two word answer will be" (to a future application to join the EU). Is that "answer" helpful?

A number of EU ministers said (Junker-like) to "get on with activating article 50" and if you don't know the consequence of invoking that then researching that might be a better use of our time because it could be a bad and avoidable move. Once taken, all 27 countries would then have to agree if the UK changed its position and so a full Brexit of England and Wales (possibly minus London) might be the least worse option. We should calm down and look at what has happened and what options are still available NOW before Article 50 narrows them.

There are those in Europe who are trying to help this situation and we could talk about that, or the talk can be about prejudice and "wicked Tories".

Everyone is apparently reacting angrily. I don't think article 50 should be invoked this week. I think it is time to slow things down and look carefully at what has happened and not issue blame. There are no useful parallels with the USA. It should be no surprise that The EU has its problems, Brexit or no. We could also be looking at the break-up of the UK and the UK losing its permanent seat on the security council.

I will vote for an EU (or other project) that tries to attract and retain members and I have tried to help clarify what the EU is and start a conversation about what is wrong with it. Perhaps all that will happen is that folk will talk angrily and apportion blame. If so, perhaps the Brexiteers are right after all. We need to get out of the EU and stay away from European institutions. Nobody is angry at the Swiss or Norwegians for never joining.

Myke wrote: "No doubt Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachman would all fit right in there." They certainly wouldn't. Though not a UKIP supporter, I can't help feeling a bit insulted at the suggestion.

Nyarlathotep's picture
ZeffD - "I can't help feeling

ZeffD - "I can't help feeling a bit insulted at the suggestion."

Well I'm an outsider looking in, that does not really understand politics in the UK; but that is what it looks like to me just reading about UKIP on wikipedia (sans the Euroscepticism).

mykcob4's picture
To say that the UKIP isn't a

To say that the UKIP isn't a far right wing radical racist fear mongering party that preys on the unsubstantiated fears of uneducated white people is ludicrous. That is exactly what it is and always has been. It is just like the tea party in the USA. It makes wild claims that just aren't true. It gins up fear and hatred. It touts nationalism over reason. It promotes isolationism. That is exactly what the tea party in the US does.
Just look at this BBC article about the UKIP. The party platform reads almost verbatim what the tea party wants.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-22396690

Here's another from the Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/ukip-manifesto-2015-the-...

Pipe dreams and smoke. No way to pay for what they say they will do. ( billion here, 3 billion there, and no accounting for the financial losses from leaving the EU.

A 5 year halt to immigration....sounds like Trump to me.

chimp3's picture
It is perfectly appropriate

It is perfectly appropriate for any human being to make decisions regarding their own economic future. I am an outsider looking in. I don't feel it is my place to comment one way or the other.

mykcob4's picture
I have to say I disagree with

I have to say I disagree with you. You aren't an outsider at all, in the same way the world wasn't an outsider when Hitler embarked on his world crime spree. What the UK has done or really what a small minority of the UK has convinced the UK to do is to allow xenophobia rule their judgement. By doing so they have destroyed the retirement wealth of an entire generation in that nation. More importantly it has risked the wealth of the rest of the world and put in danger the freedom of middle class people worldwide.
Jeff is too casual about the whole situation. USA conservatives are using phrases like "democracy in action" as if it really were an exercise in democracy. What it is is a hostile takeover by the extreme right in the UK and a war on the middle class of the world. If you think England could never be another 1933 Germany you are sadly mistaken. Far rightwing rhetoric and political action met with apathy. Soon rightwing action will be far more than political, it will be whole sale genocide. We don't need another Neville Chamberlain. We need another FDR!

ZeffD's picture
I really do appreciate all

I really do appreciate all your comments.

"You aren't an outsider at all.." because it is a globalized world and one nation's actions affect another. Most USAmericans seem conscious of their especially crucial role in the world and their openness to comments from non-US-voters is highly valued.

There is no difference between the BBC article link Myke posted and this?...
http://www.teaparty.org/about-us/
I have to say I can't agree. I think your comments towards UKIP voters are insulting and therefore uncalled for, Myke. More importantly, I think your view is mistaken. I think you are sounding a bit extreme and asserting views with as much unnecessary excitement as UKIP. I ask you to consider if your tone might be seen as unduly agitated, because I think cool heads are called for at this point and the views of people like you are important.
http://www.ukip.org/

I can only repeat that Brexit is not caused by racism and it isn't about any such thing. Nor is UKIP, but the party farthest right on the spectrum always attracts the most extreme element.
Quote BBC: GAY MARRIAGE: UKIP supports the concept of civil partnerships, but opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage, which it says risks "the grave harm of undermining the rights of Churches and Faiths to decide for themselves whom they will and will not marry". Unquote.
There is certainly a religious element to UKIP, but the Tories suffer from that too....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30848534
Religionism is unrepresentative of modern Britain, especially among young people, but it is deeply rooted in the establishment and the work and intentions of almost all religionists here are respected if their superstitions are laughed at and mocked.

I hope my comments aren't too casual (if I'm "Jeff" above) :-) Right or not, I had hoped they were thoughtful and reflective. FDR wasn't known for being hasty. I actually don't dislike Mr Farage, I simply disagree with him.

It now appears that article 50 won't be invoked until October (if ever). Another referendum is possible if the case for it is strong and the winners of this, first referendum can be mollified.

Don't panic, Corporal Jones....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgonBt1oa9Y&list=PLHRpkGRK-AbvIXUGanJ1c2...
( A famous character here in the UK who, in old age, tends to panic)

mykcob4's picture
1) The UKIP says it supports

1) The UKIP says it supports civil unions is like saying we don't recognize the individual rights of gays. That's homophobic.
2) Churches don't have rights, people(individuals do) To say that a church has a right and that that right is superior to the rights of an individual isn't democratic it's racist or in this case homophobic. What's next? A church decides that mixed race marriages are wrong so the state doesn't allow them to get married, and instead supports a "civil union"?
I am not panicking or anything like that. I am acting according to the situation.
And yes I meant Zeff instead of Jeff.
I read the manifesto and platform of the UKIP. It is similar to the Libertarians in the US except in the fact that it has a tea party element. The ending of immigration for 5 years is tea partyish. It smacks of racism, isolationism, and nationalism. It is similar to fascism.
If you know history, Hitler didn't fully expose his manifesto until he had secured a foothold in German politics. He preyed upon fears that he generated. That is exactly what the UKIP is doing. It is what the tea party is doing in the USA.
Ask yourself something Zeff. Why is it that the white supremacist groups are embracing the UKIP, the tea party, the Torries, the republicans, the conservatives, the religious right? If those groups really believe in equality and freedom why have the white supremacist endorsed them so overwhelmingly?
Also FDR was NOT hasty but he wasn't afraid to act with full measure. He was innovative and creative.
There is a reason that the founders of the USA made sure that majority did not rule and that rights were bestowed on the individual. Mobs act irrationally. You may see this purely as a UK problem, but it is far greater than that and impacts far more than people of the UK. It's a worldwide problem and must be dealt with comprehensively.

ZeffD's picture
"If those groups really

"If those groups really believe in equality and freedom why have the white supremacist endorsed them so overwhelmingly?"
That's obvious. The Supremacists (et al) latch-on to whichever party seems the most extreme, right or left. They want people to see them as part of a wider movement rather than the relatively few extremists they are. People play into their hands when slur people like UKIP and the ruling Conservative Party unduly by associating essentially respectable political parties with extremists. To be thought powerful is the aim of the extremists. Instead, we (including UKIP) need to be united against them. I don't care if racist nutters endorse the Tories, UKIP or whoever. I listen to the legitimate supporters of those parties, not extremist hangers-on. UKIPs aims are what they say they are. If they become even more extreme, they will lose what little support they have.

Back to Brexit and its implications. A second referendum a la Denmark and Ireland looks like a good idea to me, but current circumstances don't seem conducive. I suppose it is a guessing game and we won't find out what UK leadership will emerge until October. There is no opposition, but nobody trusted Labour with the economy since Mr Ed Milliband became leader (predecessor to Mr Corbyn). So, there's been no effective opposition here for years. (Labour are divided in a number of ways).

Words from Mr Cameron: "this House must not stand in the way of the will of the British people" and telling us the referendum we've had was on behalf of our grandchildren and not just on the issue at hand. Those words apparently scupper the chances of a new leader calling referendum 2. At least, they indicate that the influential Mr Cameron isn't going to help avoid Brexit.

I don't think the majority of people are in favour of Brexit now, but the "leadership" we have doesn't look like it can take advantage of the window of opportunity that might present before Article 50 is invoked. We'll find that out in October, perhaps.

Even if Remain somehow won out against all the odds, Scotland might still go independent. Assuming Brexit goes ahead it could lead to a UK of only England and Wales with an independent London applying to join the EU. Many countries are not happy with the Structure of the UN now, so it won't necessarily be a matter of there being only four Permanent members, or of Germany taking the UK's place if the UK loses its seat. It could lead to a restructuring at the UN.

It is the growth of nationalism in Scotland that may end the UK as we know it. Brexit only makes it more likely and may be the issue that triggers it.

mykcob4's picture
Don't confuse the UN with the

Don't confuse the UN with the EU. They are quite different in structure and governing. The UN includes all nations and there is currently no nation outside the UN. The UN security counsel has 10 members and it takes a unanimous decision by that counsel to act. That counsel includes China and Russia.
You have made the error that many make, but unlike you the UKIP has made it purposely, because they want to bring down any and all central governing bodies.
I totally disagree of your assessment about extreme right wing factions. If they didn't think that certain political factions would and could support their particular racist ideology, they would endorse they so enthusiastically.
I have to wait and see how Scotland and Northern Ireland play out their roles. It can't be good if England continues on it's path to self destruction and chaos.

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