Most Accurate Calculation of the Improbability of "Any God Existing"

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arakish's picture
Most Accurate Calculation of the Improbability of "Any God Existing"

Now here is a really wild one for y'all.

99.999999949625245174939965143142980919065925093722169646151570985838741059788595977297549893016175392846813826868386894277415599185592524595395943104997252468084598727364469584865383673622262609912460805124388439045124413654976278079771569143599770012961608944169486855584840635342207222582848864815845602850601684273945226746767889525213852254995466672782398645659611635488623057745649803559363456817432411251507606947945109659609402522887971089314566913686722874894056010150330861792868092087476091782493858900971490967598526136554978189312978482168299894872265880485756401427047755513237964145152374623436454285844479526586782105114135473573952311342716610213596953623144295248493718711014576540359027993440374200731057853906219838744780847848968332144571386875194350643021845319104848100537061468067491927819119793995206141966342875444064374512371819217999839101591956181467514269123974894090718649423196156794520809514655022523160388193014209376213785595663893778708303906979207734672218256259966150142150306803844773454920260541466592520149744285073251866600213243408819071048633173464965145390579626856100550810665879699816357473638405257145910289706414011097120628043903975951567715770042033786993600723055876317635942187312514712053292819182618612586732157919841484882916447060957527069572209175671167229109816909152801735067127485832228718352093539657251210835791513698820914442100675103346711031412671113699086585163983150197016515116851714376576183515565088490998985998238734552833163550764791853589322618548963213293308985706420467525907091548141654985946163718027098199430992448895757128289059232332609729971208443357326548938239119325974636673058360414281388303203824903758985243744170291327656180937734440307074692112019130203303801976211011004492932151608424448596376698389522868478312355265821314495768572624334418930396864262434107732269780280731891544110104468232527162010526522721116603966655730925471105578537634668206531098965269186205647693125705863566201855810072936065987648611791045334885034611365768675324944166803962657978771855608455296541266540853061434443185867697514566140680070023787765913440171274947042056223053899456131407112700040785473326993908145466464588079727082668306343285878569830523580893306575740679545716377525420211495576158140025012622859413021647155097925923099079654737612551765675135751782966645477917450112996148903046399471329621073404375189573596145890193897131117904297828564750320319869151402870808599048010941214722131794764777262241425485454033215718530614228813758504306332175182979866223717215916077166925474873898665494945011465406284336639379003976926567214638530673609657120918076383271664162748888007869256029022847210403172118608204190004229661711963779213375751149595015660496318629472654736425230817703675159067350235072835405670403867435136222247715891504953098444893330963408780769325993978054193418912279381830119491298336733624406566430860213949463952247371907021798609437027705392171762931767523846748184676694051320005681271452635608277857713427577896091736371787214684409012249534301465495853710507922796892589235420199561121290219608640344181598136297747713099605187072113499999983729780499510597317328160963185950244594553469083026425223082533446850352619311881710100031378387528865875332083814206171776691473035982534904287554687311595628638823537875937519577818577805321712268066130019278766111959092164201989380952572010654858632788659361533818279682303019520353018529689957736225994138912497217752834791315155748572424541506959508295331168617278558890750983817546374649393192550604009277016711390098488240128583616035637076601047101819429555961989467678374494482553797747268471040475346462080466842590694912933136770289891521047521620569660240580381501935112533824300355876402474964732639141992726042699227967823547816360093417216412199245863150302861829745557067498385054945885869269956909272107975093029553211653449872027559602364806654991198818347977535663698074265425278625518184175746728909777727938000816470600161452491921732172147723501414419735685481613611573525521334757418494684385233239073941433345477624168625189835694855620992192221842725502542568876717904946016534668049886272327917860857843838279679766814541009538837863609506800642251252051173929848960841284886269456042419652850222106611863067442786220391949450471237137869609563643719172874677646575739624138908658326459958133904780275900994657640789512694683983525957098258226205224894077267194782684826014769909026401363944374553050682034962524517493996514314298091906592509372216964615157098583874105978859597729754989301617539284681382686838689427741559918559252459539594310499725246808459872736446958486538367362226260991246080512438843904512441365497627807977156914359977001296160894416948685558484063534220722258284886481584560285060168427394522674676788952521385225499546667278239864565961163548862305774564980355936345681743241125150760694794510965960940252288797108931456691368672287489405%

And before you Religious Absolutists scream "foul" and require me to provide my evidence, PHFFT!! Fuck you. Y'all don't ever need to provide evidence. Why should I? Just accept it on "faith."

rmfr

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LogicFTW's picture
Roughly 1 in 5 billion? (If I

Roughly 1 in 5 billion? (If I counted the number of 9's correctly.)
Pft I think you are being way too generous! Especially if we go by standard accepted definitions of the word: "god." I would put it at least 1 in 100 trillion!

But you did say it was: "Most Accurate Calculation" in your title!

*puts on sunglasses*
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arakish's picture
I don't know. If you were to

I don't know. If you were to count all those decimal places, it seems it would be greater than 1 chance in a googol.

rmfr

Tin-Man's picture
4984 decimal places.... (in

4984 decimal places.... (in case anybody was curious).

Algebe's picture
Arakish:

Arakish:

I think you're wildly over-estimating the possibility of a god existing.

arakish's picture
Actually you are correct. I

Actually you are correct. I did a series of calculations and ended up with that. Need to go back and redo it.

I only did it to take my mind off the pain in back. Finally got one doctor to see on the 24th. Gads it is so painful, it takes me an hour just to get out of bed.

rmfr

Cognostic's picture
Probability is the chance

Probability is the chance that something will happen - how likely it is that some event will occur.
"Probable has no formal definition. It is merely someone’s subjective estimation of the probability of some event X." (QUORA)

We have never had a God occur. Why would we assume a probability that a god will occur. It must be an assumption based on nothing at all since that is the evidence we have for a God. The chance that a God will occur is the same chance that 42 is the meaning of life the universe and everything. If we are going to express probability formally, then all probabilities are dependent on the nature of the probability distribution involved."

We have no probability distribution of existing Gods. "Roughly 1 in 5 billion" is being extremely generous. How do you know that? What is your set of comparison. It gets worse.

Every attribute ascribed to a god would lessen the probability of it's existence. The God of the Bible for example is omnipresent and omnipotent, all loving and jealous... etc etc etc.... So when probability is ascribed, what god are we talking about?

I appreciate the effort that went into "1 in 5 billion," but if that were the case, there is actually a very good chance that that god actually does exist, so I disagree with the probability statement. I'm not discounting the effort and the thought but I would place the probability at ZERO. At least until someone comes up with something supernatural. Like; if prayer actually did some good, it might nudge the God hypothesis up a point or two.

I just don't see where the 1 in 5 billion came from assuming of course that the estimation of the OP is correct. I don't want to copy and past the OP's stats in this post.

The "Probability" of a god, any god, existing is currently ZERO. There is no set about which to predict probability. To say otherwise would give the Creationists license to claim that we are the lucky products of that God. The God hypothesis is a failed hypothesis. PROBABILITY 0%/

Just my thoughts on the matter.

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