Iran's Silent Revolution Against Islam

A new study conducted by the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance revealed that more and more Iranians are becoming less religious than ever before despite extensive and ongoing repression and propaganda by the Iranian regime.

This confidential report, conducted by the ministry’s Research Center for Culture, Art, and Communication and leaked to foreign-based Persian news outlets such as Iran International, shows that around 73% of Iranians advocate for the separation of religion from state, compared to 22.5% who prefer a religious government, indicating increasing support for secularism in Iran. 

Support for secularism in Iran is evidently and sharply increasing, with demands for secular governance rising from less than 31% in 2015. The massive change is attributed to the ongoing Mahsa Amini protests since September 2022, triggered by the death of a 22-year-old Iranian girl under the custody of the regime’s morality police after she was arrested for “improperly” wearing her hijab.

These protests, along with the rise of the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement in Iran, pose the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since it was founded after the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Over 15,800 Iranians aged 18 and above from all of Iran’s 31 provinces participated in the study, and this is the fourth study conducted by the ministry since three previous studies in 2000, 2003, and 2015.

While the majority of Iranian’s departure from the government’s Islamist ideology is already shocking enough for the country’s theocratic establishment, most of the participants who took part in the study reiterated that more and more Iranians are likely to be less religious in the coming years.

In addition, 62% of the participants believe that ideological questions should not be included in employment exams, emphasizing the deepening polarization around ideological and religious issues in Iranian society under the clerical regime. 

One of the study’s most significant findings was that 85% of participants said Iranians have become less religious compared to 5 years ago. In comparison, only 7% said they have become more religious, and around 8% saw no difference between today and five years ago.

Over 81% of the participants expect a continued decline in religious observance in the next five years, reflecting changing societal attitudes towards religious practices. Only 9% believe they are more likely to become religious, and around 10% said there would be no difference.

Attitudes towards the highly controversial mandatory hijab laws have remarkably changed since 2015, with a significant part of the participants expressing tolerance towards women who defy the mandate, and only a minority support stricter hijab laws. Around 38% of the participants said they don’t mind if women defy the compulsory hijab law, while 46% said they oppose women who don’t wear the hijab but do not object to it.

The changes in attitudes towards the mandatory hijab laws have changed significantly since 2015, where only 10.6% said they don’t mind women who violate the hijab laws. Today, 34.4% said hijab should not be forcefully imposed on women who don’t like it, compared to only 15.7% in 2015. Lastly, only 7.9% today agree that women should wear the hijab whether they like it or not, compared to 18.6% in 2015.

Only 11% of the participants said they regularly participate in congregational prayers, while 45% said they’ve never attended Friday prayers. In addition, 19% said they’ve never read the Quran, compared to 13% who regularly do so.

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