Pew Study: Growing Trend - Christians Leaving Faith in Flocks

Pope Francis

An extensive study carried out by Pew Research Center has revealed some interesting information concerning the trajectory of world religions over the next 40 years.

Up until 2010, Christianity was the most dominant religion in the world, with approximately 2.2 billion followers and Islam ranked second with approximately 1.6 billion followers. However, if the existing demographic trends continue, Islam will soon catch up with Christianity by the mid of the 21st century.

Size and Projected Growth of Major Religious Groups

Moreover, Christians are increasingly leaving the faith in droves, with approximately 106 million Christians expected to change religious affiliations from 2010 to 2050 and only roughly 40 million joining Christianity. In this regard, the religiously unaffiliated are expected to witness the largest net gains from religious switching, welcoming over 61 million followers by the end of 2050.

Projected Cumulative Change Due to Religious Switching

In North America, Muslims are considered the fastest growing religious group, second only to followers of “other religions”. By 2050, Christianity is expected to fall to 66 percent from 78 percent of the total population in 2010.

Below is a depiction of the dominant religious groups in the United States.

Religious Congregations and Membership Study

During the same period, unaffiliated religions are expected to increase from 16 percent of the total population to 26 percent. By 2050, America will have more Muslims than Jews, with the former constituting 2.1 percent of the total population and the latter constituting 1.4 percent.

In the Caribbean and South America, Christianity will witness only a slight dip over the next 40 years, falling to 89 percent in 2050 from 90 percent in 2010. During the same period of time, the religiously unaffiliated will see an increase of 45 million people, which is equal to a 1 percent increase – 8 percent in 2010 and 9 percent in 2050.

Long Term Projections of Christian and Muslim Shares of World's Population

If the current trends continue beyond 2050, which is rather unlikely considering unforeseen events (famine, war, innovation) may take place any time over the four-decade long period, then the world’s population of Muslims would more or less equal that of Christians by 2070.

Here are some other findings from the same study:

  1. Islam is going to be the fastest growing religion for the next 40 years.
  2. The total number of Muslims will match the total number of Christians by 2070.
  3. Atheists, agnostics and the religiously unaffiliated, despite increasing in countries like America and France, will constitute a declining share of the world’s population.
  4. The world’s Buddhist population will remain the same as it was in 2010, while Jewish and Hindu populations will be noticeably larger than they are currently.
  5. In Europe, Muslims will constitute approximately 10 percent of the total population.
  6. While India will still have a majority Hindu population, it will have the largest Muslim population compared to any other country in the world, surpassing even Indonesia.
  7. In America, Christians will fall to two-thirds of the population in 2050 from three-quarters in 2010, Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion and more people will identify with Islam than Judaism.
  8. Four of every 10 Christians across the world will reside in sub-Saharan Africa.

Photo Credits: PoliNation

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