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It is pretty hard to give levels of importance to factors that trigger an extinction. However, the shorter your lifespan and the larger the number of your progeny gives a species more chances to collect mutations that allow the given species to survive environmental change besides that the sheer number of members in a species also make it harder to wipe out. It is clearly seen in the fact that bacteria are the most successful organisms ever and arguably the last ones to disappear at the end of life on planet earth. In fact, the planet belongs to the bacteria. They are inside every other organism, it very gram of soil or water, inside the earth up to several km deep and in the deepest ocean basins.
But I would attribute a bacteria's success more to their size, and ability to thrive under extreme circumstances, than their ability to divide exponentially. If bacteria can't survive in soil, it doesn't matter how many times they replicate, they're not going to be able to avoid extinction.
So my point is reproduction is a secondary, perhaps even tertiary issue. There are things more preventive of extinction than that. There's also something to be said about the longer you live, the more you can reproduce. I don't see why it needs to be either/or exclusively.
"Evolution doesn't care what does or doesn't go extinct. Clearly."
Of course not, who ever said it could? Evolution is an insentient process, it has no cognitive ability, makes no plans, and has neither compassion nor nefarious intent. The vast majority of evolved species have gone down a blind alley and become extinct. Even the most successful in evolutionary terms like dinosaurs were eradicated, probably by a chance cataclysmic event like an asteroid strike.