COVID-19

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cranky47's picture
@Old man shouts

@Old man shouts

"I find it hilarious that hand sanitiser is sold out but disposable gloves are fully stocked...like duuuuh Aussies...."

Quite.

AND in South Australia, so for once I can't blame convict ancestors.

Sadly, OZ has at least its fair share of drongos*** One need only listen our shock jocks ,and watch an oxymoronic local reality TV show --if that doesn't convince, have a look at our born againie PM.

*** A drongo is not necessarily stupid. More your common or garden variety fool. You know, like our current crop of apologists.

LogicFTW's picture
One theory I read on the TP

One theory I read on the TP run is that toilet paper is large, 40 rolls fills up an entire shelf at a store. So they only put out 40-80 tp rolls at a time, saving valuable shelf space for other items, and storing the rest in back.

So 40 people come by and buy T.P. and suddenly a large shelf sits empty. People see only a few left, and panic buy, and then start taking pictures and sharing it with their friends the bare TP shelf. Even though their is plenty more in the back. People perceive it as a scarce resource even though it is not. I predict a month from now TP will sit mostly unsold on shelves for weeks, as people go through all the extra TP they bought.

The social media exposure ensures more people come in and buy way way more tp then they need, then the store does run out, multiplying the perceived scarcity, even though actual use of the product has not gone up.

ilovechloe's picture
I just want to remind

I just want to remind everybody on the forum to take precautions for the Corona Virus.

I have no doubt that no matter where you live, this thing IS spreading in a community near you! Avoid any crowds, & wash your hands regularly. Take extra precautions if you are in a high risk category, such as over 50. This virus is NOT just like the flu, its death rate is far higher than the flu, especially if you are over 50, or have pre-existing health conditions.

You can also catch it from asymptomatic persons, & there is the possibility it is aerosolised (NOT just droplet infection as many governments are still stating).

I also just listened to a USA press conference. The testing regime over there is an absolute joke. Despite the fact that there is now almost certainly widespread community transmission there, they are still only testing people who present with systems AND have a history of travel to a high risk area, or persons in an aged care facility.

The government over there simply does NOT want to know the true figures, probably because they are afraid that if the true extent of the infection is known, it will show how incompetent the regime has been in handling this, & hurt trumps re-election chances later this year.

Old man shouts at clouds's picture
@ All

@ All

ITS OK EVERYONE: https://www.gistreel.com/bishop-obinim-sells-coronavirus-anointing-oil-t...

Or if you want to buy local : Those seeking a cure for coronavirus or another illness could get four tubes of Silver Solution gel for $80 at JimBakkerShow.com. Or, for $125, they could buy a variety pack of two bottles of Silver Solution liquid, two tubes of gel and three lozenges. ( but te NY Attorney General just sent him a "cease and desist" letter.

What? These good christian folk wouldn't lie would they? What a bad example for those like Lion and Jo!

cranky47's picture
Huff Post US today, Sunday

Huff Post US today, Sunday March :

Meanwhile, in the White House ,the Prez is treating the whole thing as a PR exercise .

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-trump-doesnt-care_n_...

Here in South Australia, Monday is a Public Holiday, for The Adelaide Cup, a horse race. Pretty sure it's not even the most important race on the calendar .They couldn't possibly cancel or ban spectators. Seems SA's politicians are of the opinion that Eastern States and Western Australia are on another planet, and we are safe from Coronavirus. (Well,Ok ,they have a point with Western Australia; Perth is nearly 2000 miles from Adelaide, by air. )

ilovechloe's picture
The reason I reckon cases are

The reason I reckon cases are suddenly starting to show up in Sydney right now is because of the Bushfire concert with Queen etc held on the 16th Feb that over 75,000 people attended.

The Australian F! GP is in Melbourne next weekend. Another chance for thousands to become infected.

Nyarlathotep's picture
I've read accounts of the

I've read accounts of the Spanish Flu (1918), of ministers proclaiming during their sermons that Christians were immune to it though the protection of Jesus; while parishioners were dying in the audience.

Whitefire13's picture
Nyarlathotep...

Nyarlathotep...
I got this....
Hmm, clearing my throat. “ only true Christians are protected - those dying in their seats aren’t “true” Christians, otherwise they wouldn’t be dying...”

And for fucks sake - don’t you daaarrrreee type the “no true Scotsman” at me ):(

I’m just joking.

Nyarlathotep's picture
Oh man, the store still doesn

Oh man, the store still doesn't have that popular soda. I only wanted to get a 6 pack for my wife. I've been to the store like 4 times in the last week, and every time it looks like a tornado went though just that part of the soda isle. WTF is wrong with us (humans)?

/e: I know, first world problems right? Well I really don't care about the soda, but the situation is kind of scary.

ilovechloe's picture
All the christians will be ok

All the christians will be ok. If they get infected with the virus, they can just go to a Benny Hinn Healing rally, or one of the other faith healers & get cured. I am surprised they aren't already advertising Corona Virus faith healing rallies!

LogicFTW's picture
@Thread

@Thread
My latest thoughts and outlook, for anyone who cares:

The good news:

China continues to drop in new cases, and there is compelling evidence that China is not trying to hide or downplay the numbers eithir. China has been going back to work, and we are still not seeing a rise in new cases, next week or 2 will be very informative on how large cities that went through a major outbreak can get back to work or not.

S. Korea is now seeing a drop in new cases. This is great news, especially for the western world democracies. A lot of talk has been done about how China is different, with different tools available to them compared to your typical democratic/capitalism oriented country. To see S. Korea have success is very promising.

Increasingly it is looking like this is not as quiet as contagious as initially feared. It seems for the most part, it requires sustained contact. People are not getting it shopping at stores, walking around etc. for the most part. Instead it looks like it requires sustained contact with mostly symptomatic people. (Caring for the sick is where the real danger of covid seems to manifest.)

Increasingly it seems like it rarely effects children much, and even young healthy adults have little to fear. If there is no major community spread out break in your area, there seems to be little reason for the young and healthy to stop doing business as usual, with some emphasis on clean/hygienic practices, unless perhaps they are caring for and/or in daily contact with vulnerable person(s).

The more time that passes before a major outbreak in your area, the better, this includes 99% of the world. Testing gets better, more is known about how it spreads, and more people are aware to take basic precautions that will halt/reverse the spread. The more people take seriously basic things such as washing hands and staying home when sick, the more it will halt the spread. And people are starting to do exactly that in many parts of the world.

The bad news: (feel free to skip)

Global spread continues to happen. Things are getting increasingly dire in Iran, and Italy.

France and Germany are now at over 1000 detected cases, and there is little reason to think that the spread across europe is going to slow anytime soon.

Markets worldwide are hitting recession levels. The economic damage, (to me,) is the real scare here. There are many fragile markets out there, and this sudden massive drop economically could create a domino effect. As more factories close worldwide, supply issues are going to ramp up, and it will take longer to recover from the interruption.

- Quick section on USA.

USA is at over 600 known cases as of the morning of March 9th. It appears there are outbreaks in both Seattle area and NYC area. There may possibly also be an outbreak in California next few days will give us a better picture there.

But there is good news here too, All states have had access to testing kits with quick turn around times now for a couple of days. And for all outside the cities mentioned above, they have not been showing community outbreaks. Instead 95+% are traceable. The thought that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people scattered all over the US spreading it to others unknown, seems to at this point, not be reality, based on the 1000's of tests already administered to high suspicion cases. Preventing a major, uncontrollable outbreak in the US is still within the realm of possibility, at least for now. The next 2 weeks or so will determine much of the outcome of how bad it is in the USA.

ilovechloe's picture
@ LogicFTW

@ LogicFTW

QUOTE: "Increasingly it is looking like this is not as quiet as contagious as initially feared. It seems for the most part, it requires sustained contact. People are not getting it shopping at stores, walking around etc. for the most part. Instead it looks like it requires sustained contact with mostly symptomatic people. (Caring for the sick is where the real danger of covid seems to manifest.)"

Where did the above information come from? Is this information from scientists who have studied the virus, or from some politician or lacky of a politician who is trying to calm community fears?

The fact that 1/4 of the diamond princess cruise ship passengers & workers became infected while supposedly under quarantine seems to suggest that this virus is extremely contagious.

QUOTE: "But there is good news here too, All states have had access to testing kits with quick turn around times now for a couple of days. And for all outside the cities mentioned above, they have not been showing community outbreaks. Instead 95+% are traceable. The thought that there is 1000's upon 1000's of people scattered all over the US spreading it to others unknown, seems to at this point, not be reality, based on the 1000's of tests already administered to high suspicion cases. Preventing a major, uncontrollable outbreak in the US is still within the realm of possibility, at least for now. The next 2 weeks or so will determine much of the outcome of how bad it is in the USA."

I will reserve my judgement on the above until testing gets ramped up, & a decent no. of tests are performed. Testing has been woefully inadequate till now. My hunch is that there is already 1000's infected in the USA. I have no evidence for this, but as you say all will become apparent over the next 2 weeks.

My strategy is to lay low until 90% of the worlds population has become infected, & nearly everybody is immune (providing the virus doesn't mutate again).

LogicFTW's picture
@ilovechloe

@ilovechloe

All this stuff is mostly my own opinion, of which I stated at the start of my post. I spent, especially ~2 weeks ago dozens upon dozens of hours combing the internet trying to learn all I could. Creating hard links to the hard data was not by goal, just an update on my own thoughts.

That said, I will still try and answer your questions/comment.

Where did the above information come from? Is this information from scientists who have studied the virus, or from some politician or lacky of a politician who is trying to calm community fears?

Probably a mix of both, especially in the US it can be difficult to separate out political rhetoric from just the hard data. I tend to lean more on the data side of things.

The macro view on the data: China's new cases are still dropping, even now after working hard to put people back to work, even bussing them from where people were staying for chinese new year to their places of work. And we still have not seen a spike in new cases. Another week or 2 of this should all but confirm if China has managed to successfully stop the epidemic there, that, at its worse was finding 1000's of new cases a day in just one area of China, (Wuhan.) If it was highly contagious to the point that people were picking up even with super brief/casual contact, things would be far worse. The big data analysis (60,000) cases in wuhan area shows most people got it from direct sustained contact, usually family members that people were caring for, and/or quarantined with.

Princess cruise boat off coast of japan, what did we have there? Yes quarantine, but also, many many people in close constant contact with each other, even after they started initializing quarantine. They also, did not quarantine the staff that was taking care of all the guest on the boat. The crew aboard was still eating at cafeterias together, bunking 4 to a tiny room etc (they had no other choice!) What we learned from princess cruise line is that sustained close contact = bad, even if basic measures such as washing hands and avoiding touching things etc.

Cruise ships have always had problems with outbreaks of viral infections on board. They have made some progress to minimize this but it remains a problem to this day, (especially in a world with covid-19) The newer boats have better air circulation systems, but if you are immunocompromised getting on a cruise boat is always a bad idea, even 6 months ago.

I actually read about the cruise ship industry a couple of years ago, and especially the cheaper cruise lines, can be a bit of a horror story, especially for some of the staff aboard these ships, it does not take much to consider it modern day slavery. If interested I encourage you to read up on it.

I will reserve my judgement on the above until testing gets ramped up, & a decent no. of tests are performed. Testing has been woefully inadequate till now.

I agree, like I said, next few weeks will be informative, but I have read that across the country, 1000's of test have been performed, and they were all done on the most "suspicious" cases. As in, people with travel history, people manifesting symptoms that align, and where possible people that test negative for similar flu strains.

My strategy is to lay low until 90% of the worlds population has become infected, & nearly everybody is immune (providing the virus doesn't mutate again).

Not a bad strategy if you can pull it off. If anything you will make your own small contribution in slowing the spread. The more social voluntary social distancing that occurs the slower and more manageable this spread will be. 90% worldwide infection rate may yet be years off. That is a long time to duck out. Realize right now, 120k or so known cases does not represent even 1% of 1% of the world population. And now people know about it and are actively combating it to slow it down. I have heard top scientist in the field quote 40-70 percent of world population in 1 year.

Whitefire13's picture
https://thewuhanvirus.com/

https://thewuhanvirus.com/?fbclid=IwAR2Fo_9i-xn6ojti45xvzkv2o-aDrs1mqsNW...

A very cool link. I think China’s health care system must have some type of issue. A quick calculation has China’s death rate higher than “the rest of the world”

LogicFTW's picture
Wuhan has high air pollution,

Wuhan has high air pollution, like many cities (google wuhan air pollution) they had demonstrations in wuhan city as recently as november over the air pollution.

Also ~50 percent of men in wuhan regularly smoke. There is also a culture, especially among the men to work long hours for weeks on end, pushing through any illness to show up at work.

Also Wuhan is a lot like chicago, a transportation hub. But it is not like chicago in terms of population, or population density. Wuhan has 11 million people. (More than NYC!) And most of them live in densely populated areas, (condominiums, with small square footage per occupant.) Shared bathrooms, etc.

Then there is the bed/ventilator count. For the portion of the population that gets very sick, access to a hospital bed and ventilator greatly increases the likelihood of recovery. Without it, death rates spike.

This is why, for just about anywhere else in the world, vulnerable people should self quarantine now. You do not want to be caught in the initial large waves of infection, like some cities/towns in Italy right now, where it is almost like a wartime battlefield. Where doctors are forced to decide who is even worth saving, being so overwhelmed. If people can avoid getting sick for even just 2 weeks longer then the initial waves of virus chances are capacity at hospitals will have capacity to help save the sickest individuals.

Every day individuals can avoid getting sick, the better the outcome is for that individual. Now is the time to self quarantine, at least in the US, I am self quarantining until I see that my neighbors actually take this serious, instead of acting like business as usual. But I will likely be one of the first in my area after the initial waves that come through, to end my quarantine, (once I see everyone taking it seriously,) and I will head out support the local mom and pop shops that I suspect will be struggling heavily 2-3 weeks from now.

Algebe's picture
This flyer arrived in my

This flyer arrived in my mailbox yesterday. Is this the worst ad in history?

Attachments

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Yes
cranky47's picture
NOON TV News Australian

NOON TV News Australian Broadcasting Commission (public TV) , 20 minutes ago.

Our PM and his administration are putting together a multi $million stimulus plan for our economy. Unions and industry are talking with each other. Others are suggesting people be allowed to isolate themselves without it necessarily effecting their sick leave entitlements. Not sure if THAT dog will hunt, but a least efforts are being made .

There is some concern at how hospitality workers will fare, especially since much that industry is casual

Our PM has warned that the effect on Oz may be worse than the US subprime fiasco . Due in part to strict banking regulations, we managed to avoid the worst effects . This time we probably won't be able to do avoid the pandemic .

Context: This morning I went to one of the local $ stores. I mentioned to the bloke at the check out that there were 100,000 case of the virus world wide. His response was that wasn't really very many if you consider the world population---I guess that explains why he has a McJob at the $ store.

--Put me in mind of a Ronald Reagan quote: "A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours"

Meanwhile, in the US. Is it just me, or does anyone else think Donald is getting worse?

Nyarlathotep's picture
cranky47 - There is some

cranky47 - There is some concern at how hospitality workers will fare, especially since much that industry is casual

What does that mean, like temporary work or something? Just a question from an ignorant Yankee.

cranky47's picture
@Nyarlathon

@Nyarlathon

Casual employment in Oz refers to work which is meant to be temporary and usually a lot less than 40 hours a week. Although perhaps not originally intended such work is often at minimum rates**

.EG people working at fast food chains . Also seasonal workers of varying kinds, from shearers to fruit pickers .Although casual (temporary)work that tends to be at piece work rates, where workers are paid according to how much /how many they produce.

I suspect things are fairly similar to the US and UK, but just have different names for pretty much the same kind of work.

(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((

***currently the minimum wage in Australia for a person 18 or older is officially $740.80 for a 40 hour week, or $19.49 an hour.

Some industries notoriously evade this law. Perhaps the the most egregious example is out workers in the garment industry. Here in South Australia these workers tend to be SE asian women working at home, on their own Industrial machine. They tend to be on piece work and earn unconscionably less than the minimum wage.

There are also rackets which exploit 'guest workers' and recent immigrants. Unlike the US ,we don't have an underclass of millions
of illegals who are exploited and paid well under the minimum wage.

The quote below is from the ACTU (Australian Council Of Trade Unions) but is factual as far as I know.

"More than two million Australians are employed casually. Women account for just over half of all casuals and 40% of casuals are aged 15-24 years, compared with 14% of other employees.

There is no standard definition of casual work but they are usually jobs that are temporary, have irregular hours and are not guaranteed to be ongoing.

Casual workers are entitled to some, but not all, of the benefits given to permanent workers.

Casual employees don't get paid holiday leave or sick leave but they are entitled to a higher rate of pay (casual loading), parental leave and, under the new Fair Work laws, casuals are protected from being sacked unfairly.

As a casual worker you are entitled to a loading on your hourly rate of pay, which means that your hourly pay rate should be more than the permanent workers’ doing the same work as you.

Check your award or agreement to find out what you should be being paid. For more information contact your union or the Union Helpline provides free advice on 1300 486 466."

https://www.australianunions.org.au/casual_workers_factsheet

Nyarlathotep's picture
Thanks for that information.

Thanks for that information. Yeah, it sounds more or less like what might be refereed to as temporary employment here in the States.

Algebe's picture
The Italian government has

The Italian government has ordered everyone in the country to self-isolate at home.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51810673

In terms of cases and fatalities, the outbreak is still minuscule compared with malaria or road deaths, etc. But as an economic disaster it's going to rival the Great Depression if things continue this way.

The Pope gave his blessings by video link this week. He didn't seem to care about the large crowd gathering to watch, but he kept his own precious lungs isolated from the riffraff outside.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-51794432/coronavirus-pope-franc...

ilovechloe's picture
@Algebe

@Algebe
The death rate & serious/critical rate in Italy is horrifying. Unchecked, this virus has the potential to kill 10's of millions.

LogicFTW's picture
@Thread @ilovechloe

@Thread @ilovechloe

Pure math here:

If 50% of the world population is infected before widespread vaccine, assuming a world wide 3.6% fatality rate. (Higher in vulnerable countries, lower in countries with better response and medical infrastructure.) - Experts have been quoted saying 40-70% of the world will get infected by this virus at one point.) Think h1n1 like spread, except covid is far more deadly. -

7.8 billion divided by 2 = 3.9 billion Lets round up to 4 billion for ease of numbers.

3.6% of 4 billion? 144 million. Dead, in 1 year. Roughly 20% will need major medical care. That is 800 million people needing intense medical care in the next year. Most of them being elderly or with other complicating medical factors.

Throw in that medical staff also gets sick, reducing capacity of care, and these numbers get frightening, real fast.

We can avert most all of this if worldwide, if people sacrifice their social needs for a few weeks, starting now. No unnecessary traveling, no large gatherings of people in close contact, and most of all, anyone showing any sign of contagious illness, stays home and self quarantine. For the next few weeks we need everyone to take this seriously, and not try to "tough it out" if they fall sick, but instead stay home, self quarantine as much as possible.

I get, giving up concerts, weddings, funerals, conferences, religious gatherings, and other social gatherings suck. But we are way beyond simple inconveniences at this point.

We need to do some uncomfortable work now, even in places that the outbreak is not yet widespread, to avoid a whole lot of heartache and damage later.

Algebe's picture
@ilovechloe:

@ilovechloe:

@ilovechloe: this virus has the potential to kill 10's of millions.

While we obviously need to take reasonable precautions and countermeasures, the unbridled panic that's paralyzing industries and financial markets around the world has the potential to cripple the world economy and push billions back into poverty. That would also kill millions.

A high incidence among older people is typical of any epidemic, and Italy's high mortality rate is explained by the high percentage of elderly people in its population. If you're a lifetime smoker in your 80s suffering from diabetes or heart disease, there's a strong chance that a COVID-19 infection will kill you.

Dismissive attitudes like those of the Trump administration, and panicky predictions of mega-death are both dangerous. And the Indonesian Health Minister's comment that prayer is the answer is beyond stupid.

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/impenetrable-doa-health-minister-sa...

ilovechloe's picture
@Whitefire13: QUOTE: "I

@Whitefire13: QUOTE: "I think China’s health care system must have some type of issue. A quick calculation has China’s death rate higher than “the rest of the world”

It doesn't matter how good your health care system is. Once you get 100's of critically ill patients no countries health care system can cope. China had 1000's of critically ill patients, not to mention that many of the doctors & nurses looking after the patients also became ill. Even the best health care systems will be no better than a third world countries health care system once it becomes overwhelmed with patients.

Look at the death toll Italy is experiencing at the moment. It is much higher than China's in percentage terms.

Whitefire13's picture
Yes...the whole swamp the

Yes...the whole swamp the hospitals, I have the sniffles syndrome.

I guess I meant that China isn’t exactly open when dealing with WHO. They’ve tried assessing their readiness or ability with influenza but it’s been a “best guess” scenario.

Also Italy was under austerity measures since 2012, billions cut from their healthcare system in this time frame.

Lots of moving parts in this.

ilovechloe's picture
I am going to make a

I am going to make a prediction. I predict that the cases in the USA is going to swamp the no. of cases that is in China over the coming month. A medical organisation did some mathematical modelling, (cant remember the name, SINO something), & they predicted that the USA could have up to 9000 cases by March 1. If their modelling is correct, & this doubles every 6 days, then the no. of cases is now probably around 36,000 cases.

Testing is STILL woeful in the USA. They still haven't gotten their act together. I think the whole USA government is in denial.

I really hope I am wrong about this!

The country who really has their act together is Korea. They have been doing extensive testing, & so they have a good handle oon the actual no. of cases, & they can quarantine all those who have the virus. Korea has a chance of getting this under control, however the longer the USA dithers, the worse it will become, to the point it will be impossible to control the epidemic.

cranky47's picture
@ilovechloe

@ilovechloe

"I am going to make a prediction. I predict that the cases in the USA is going to swamp the no. of cases that is in China over the coming month."

Umm, a bit of an extreme claim I think;.China has over ONE BILLION people and its government is notoriously dishonest when it comes to giving out news about anything it is felt may reflect badly on the PRC government. IE we will never know the actual number of cases or deaths in the PRC .

It is MY opinion that if at all possible, the Trump administration will fudge the figures about the virus in the US (IE lie) As indeed other countries might.

ilovechloe's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

China is definitely not reporting all the cases, I agree with that, however, they did close down many of their cities, create strict quarantine of residents, & ensure all citizens wore masks when out in public, once they got their act together, which HAS to have made a large impact.

What is the US government doing so far? They have only JUST now gotten out testing kits in QTY, & testing is STILL restricted to cases presenting with severe symptoms.

The countries that have gotten the Corona Virus under control are countries that have performed extensive testing, & imposed restrictions on the movement of their population.

I stand by my prediction that the USA will be swamped with cases over the next month, eclipsing China's figures I DO hope I am wrong!

I also hope Australia is doing a far better job than the USA. The problem is, I have no idea how much testing is being done in Australia, because I don't know if the Australian govt is sharing that information. The only way to get on top of this is extensive testing.

cranky47's picture
@ilovechloe

@ilovechloe

"I also hope Australia is doing a far better job than the USA"

If we are not, I'm going to live in Tonga.

To begin with, Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister put Australia on pandemic alert from 28 February. Precautions have begun, with several schools having already been closed.

My government is also preparing a multi million dollar package to bolster the economy, as needed. . We also have suitably remote facilities in which to quarantine infected people. I have no idea how many facilities or how many people. .

However, from talking to some people today it seems some here have yet to grasp the meaning of of 'a pandemic which could kill you'. Some authorities have opined that the coronavirus could be as bad as the 1918 flu pandemic . --THAT killed approximately 1/3 of the world's population, including around 675, 000 Americans.

An idiot I was speaking with today insists coronavirus is no worse than the annual bouts of flu which emerge. That opinion is shared by Donald Trump. The US prez also recently said that infected people should go to work and that they would probably be fine ---So yes, I hope Australia is handling the crisis a fuck of a lot better than the Trump administration, which seems to be actually hindering health organisations. I guess we'll soon know, by the relative proportions of our populations which become infected.

Today, I went to my mens group. There were five of us, including our minder. I did not go to the usual community lunch, which has a minimum of 20 people attending. Also doing my best to do a week's shopping at a time, rather than going to the shopping centre almost daily.

I am concerned but not panicked yet.

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