COVID-19

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LogicFTW's picture
I have not seen the 5.6

I have not seen the 5.6 mortality rate you suggested. Problem is we have no idea what the denominator is in that equation. In some parts of the world doing the simple deaths divided by total cases detected, will yield numbers like 10-20% death rates, where in other countries, especially ones with better testing, we are seeing .1 to 1.6% death rates so far. It is going to hit the "rich" communities first, where the folks that travel a lot, and generally are healthy, where they become "super carriers," we are seeing this over and over.

Rich part of italy, rich part of the US. In colorado where I live, it is hitting the ski areas disproportionately hard at first, because, yep, rich people traveling from all over, going to the ski areas during prime ski season in colorado. (Spring break is a busy time for colorado ski resorts.) That town in the middle of nowhere on the other side of the rockies? Nope. Not yet. But when it does eventually hit, it is going to hit those remote towns, (that almost always have very little health capacity,) especially hard.

Big problem is we have no idea what the mortality rate is. We are just now starting to get a semi accurate picture of what the mortality rate is in Wuhan, but that was back when the virus was first starting, nothing was known about it, and it hit Wuhan a very polluted and population dense city, where especially men (lots of them smoke regularly) had poor health, especially in relation to fighting off covid-19.

This is NOT the spanish flu. Spanish flu liked to pick on the young and healthy. Not the case for covid-19. Also many of the rules of how viruses propagated back then over 100 years ago is very different then now.

We have much better communication systems now, and much better understanding of these kinds of viruses, even if this is a novel coronavirus. But we also have to weigh that against the fact that we have a much MUCH! more mobile society now. Billions have cars that can travel 100's of miles a day. And ofcourse we have planes and high speed rail, that can carry people 1000's of miles a day.

I think there are many undetected cases in the US, (country I am most familiar with.) and for the last 4-6 weeks that case count has been climbing exponentially. I think, starting yesterday, (saturday the 14th,) the growth rate on new cases is going to start to flatten out, and over the next week or 2, it may even slow down. Problem is, I would not be surprised at all if actual exposure to covid-19 count right now in the US is somewhere between 20k and 200k. So it is going to look like an exponential climb over next 2 weeks, but that is just a factor of availability of test kits, not actual cases.

Due to poor testing in the US, (and for many places around the world,) everything is delayed by a week or so. The 3k number we have now, is probably close to total case count the US had... at least a week ago. Until the US, (and other countries around the world,) have the capacity to test 10's of thousands of people a day, those countries really have no idea but guesses to how many cases they actually have. All we have is a snapshot.

doG's picture
Your right, the denominator

Your right, the denominator is affected by several unknowns presently...Unconfirmed infection is important.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930195-X

cranky47's picture
@Logic

@Logic

Good post.

Although not rich, at one point I did a lot of travelling. My Favourite city was Hong Kong. Since 2000 it's been London . I was also mostly in my 30's and in rude good health.

In Ireland Pubs have been closed until March 29. Tomorrow, March 17 is St Patrick's Day and a very big deal in Ireland. If only for the $squillions of dollars they make from tourists at places such as Temple Bar in Dublin. . (drank lots of Guinness there and had a ball)

Today my new discussion group meets .There are nine of us. At 72,I'm the junior.Think I'll go today, but will play it by ear day to day.

Algebe's picture
https://www.bbc.com/news

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51895246

While other countries introduce self-isolation rules and bans on public gatherings, the US government suddenly imposes an ill-prepared screening program at airports, causing thousands of people to be crammed together in arrival halls/petrie dishes for hours. What are they thinking? Why aren't they thinking?

doG's picture
That's just fucking stupid.

@algebe

That's just fucking stupid. WTF.

cranky47's picture
@doG

@doG

"That's just fucking stupid. WTF."

No shit . What did you expect from the Trump Whitehouse? Sense? Until recently the head dill** treated the whole thing as a PR exercise and refused to be tested.

The White House has begun testing anyone who is to enter the august presence. Also be willing to bet he has been quietly tested, .

** 'dill' ; archaic Australian slang, ; idiot, ignoramus, fool. (see 'drongo) Suits Trump, is only four letters and not obscene.

doG's picture
@cranky Talking yam = wombat.

@cranky

Talking yam = wombat.

cranky47's picture
@doG

@doG

"Talking yam = wombat."

Haven't heard that one . What's its origin? (and from when?)

doG's picture
Aussie, Wombat = Waste Of

Aussie, Wombat = Waste Of Money Brains And Time. Initially used by females to describe a males wombat-like traits of their boyfriends/husbands, when pissed off at them. Now used by both males and females as in the anachronism.

A Wombat has far greater life skills than the talking yam.

cranky47's picture
@doG

@doG

"Aussie, Wombat = Waste Of Money Brains And Time. Initially used by females to describe a males wombat-like traits of their boyfriends/husbands, when pissed off at them. Now used by both males and females as in the anachronism.'

Ah, now I remember. I think it came from the definition of a wombat ; "------eats roots and leaves-----"

David Killens's picture
@ Algebe

@ Algebe

"What are they thinking? Why aren't they thinking?"

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Mikhael's picture
Hey guys

Hey guys

Figured this would be the place . I actually live just outside of Seattle, one of the worst areas for the outbreak. We just got out on higher quarantine , shutting down recreation venues and gatherings over 50. My work hours are currently cut in half.

I have 80 hours vacation and some emergency money, and we have food. We aren't in immediate danger , but it's a pretty big disruption. But my family is doing ok and safe. Stay good y'all

Old man shouts at clouds's picture
All my gigs until June are

All my gigs until June are cancelled....so I am in lock down with She Who Must Be Obeyed as She is in the VHR category and I am HR......however there is a light note...see the pic:

I expect the homicide rate to rise dramatically.

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Whitefire13's picture
@Old man shits... Squirt

@Old man shits... Squirt Bottles people! Squirt bottles!!!!
Quick before everyone else catches on...

Algebe's picture
Some good news at last.

Some good news at last. Australian scientists may have found a cure. An anti-HIV drug and a quinine-based anti-malaria drug both appear to be effective against COVID-19. They'll be starting human trials soon.

https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/cure-found-for-coronavirus-in-austr...

LogicFTW's picture
Lets hope that, and other

@Algebe
Lets hope that, and other ideas people are trying all over the world at least in part pan out. Anything that can blunt the effects on overloaded hospitals will be really helpful.

Whitefire13's picture
@Algebe ... LOL. Look at what

@Algebe ... LOL. Look at what’s in the Canadian papers/news...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-two-canadian-teams-of-sci...

Oh fuckers.... I’m not up on all of it - let’s say there’s cooperation...

Randomhero1982's picture
Officially in self isolation

Officially in self isolation now for two weeks, have a horrible cough, headache and mild temperature.

I truly hope you all get through this safely!

Algebe's picture
Take care of yourself.

@Randomhero: Take care of yourself.

Tin-Man's picture
@Random

@Random

Oh, damn. Take care of yourself, dude. Fight that shit with every ounce of your being. Please keep us posted as you are able.

Nyarlathotep's picture
@Randomhero1982

@Randomhero1982

Well for what it is worth, I think most of us will get it. You're a trendsetter!

Tin-Man's picture
@Nyar Re: To Random - "You

@Nyar Re: To Random - "You're a trendsetter!"

In this case, I'm really glad I never was one to follow the latest trends.... *knock on wood*...

Edit to add: Uh, no offense, Random.

LogicFTW's picture
@Randomhero1982

@Randomhero1982

You get through this safely too!

Randomhero1982's picture
Thanks all, I'm sure we will

Thanks all, I'm sure we will all get through this eventually. Although my concerns are reserved for the elderly and those with health issues.

Hopefully the majority of you all have similar symptoms to me, it's not pleasant, but certainly tolerable.

doG's picture
Take care random...I hope you

Take care random...I hope you recover soon.

CyberLN's picture
Washington State: https:/
cranky47's picture
@cyberLN

@cyberLN

'bout time.

Declaring that THIS is the new normal no more makes it true than claiming 70 is the new 60. It bloody well ain't, It's still 70 and it's still fucking old!--in this emergency folks over 70 are declared to be 'vulnerable'

There is a limit to which a government can or indeed should its protect people from their own bloody mindedness and stupidity .

I wouldn't give a flying continental farnarkle if that meant only stupid people would die . I rarely buy fast food. However, chances are such morons will have infected others before they went.

I'm pretty close to being self isolated. Because I'm over 70, I can get my local supermarket to deliver

Whitefire13's picture
Cranky... does your community

Cranky... does your community have senior support systems, like a “meals on wheels”? We’re blending “help” volunteering with strengths of each area - our local co-op has put together “senior care packages” (week worth of food, toiletries) for $25 ( senior can purchase or you can on behalf of a senior... try to check out some of these...and then deliver...

LogicFTW's picture
Colorado has done the same.

Colorado has done the same. Colorado has also announced they can now test 1000's of people a day, and can open up testing to anyone feeling symptoms.

Things are finally starting to move on blunting the worst of this.

To everyone here, hey we are all way too clever to get caught up in the worst of this, self isolate as much as you can, and do not worry too much about food, 1-2 week supply of calories is all you are likely need. Stores will be safe to shop in, have stock, in a week or 2.

Mikhael's picture
Take care bruh

Take care bruh

I just got the two week layoff notice tonight

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