COVID-19

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LogicFTW's picture
COVID-19

So what you guys think? Do you think they will be able to contain this virus?

My predictions for everyone, including myself, to (hopefully!) laugh at a year from now.

The covid-19 virus will eventually spread to nearly all areas. (Viruses do not respect borders or military prowess.)

However since people are now aware of this outbreak, the spread will be slower. Hot spots will show up, everyone in the area will panic and quarantines will happen in that area, and the outbreak will slow, only to pop up again somewhere else a cycle that will repeat many many times. Mass transportation will slow to essential only, with airports having screening not just for bombs etc, but if anyone has a fever or other signs of illness. It will be a long series of hopeful news of slow down, with bad news of new hot spots in unexpected areas.

And a million and one other issues will come up. Just today I read about 4 different prisons in china testing positive for covid-19. Is it fair to a prisoner to be locked up in close quarters to almost inevitably get sick? People in prisons are typically not sentenced to die, talk about a massive ugly morality/conscience issue with no apparent easy solution.

Eventually production will ramp up enough on the test kits that errs on the side of false positives, that work and work quickly, where anyone that travels, esp. by air and maybe other mass transportation will subject to a test before being able to board. Mass gatherings of people, (conventions, concerts will be canceled.) Many businesses will slow way down, especially if their business requires a lot of person to person contact. Any and all jobs that can be done remotely will be done that way. World wide economy will fall into a recession, but then bounce back once they are able to cure and/or manage covid-19. Covid-19 itself will be here to stay, circulating around infecting people for the next 10+ years unless other medical breakthroughs occur. Humans will adjust, economies will recover, eventually provided there is not other bad news.

In the end, a bit like what 9/11 did to airport screening, we will have a new screening station in the same area, one that checks for any possible virus. And global travel will be closely tracked.

Anti vaxxers are going to have a bad.. bad! time with it. Would not want to be an anti vaxxer right about now, or for the next few years..

These are all guesses, I have no special knowledge, just the free time and ability to critically analyze news/information as it is available to me.

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Nyarlathotep's picture
It's the theists fault; they

It's the theists fault; they should have prayed the virus away!

Rohan M.'s picture
@Nyar

@Nyar

"They should have prayed the virus away!"

Funny thing is, that's exactly what our Vice President Mike Pence is doing right now, while stopping at nothing to prevent the CDC from actually testing anyone or even saying anything involving COVID. So don't worry, looks like his prayers will save us! Who needs to do anything? /s

boomer47's picture
@LogicFTW

@LogicFTW

I don't know. Seems like the Chinese have made a pig's breakfast of the issue. The Japanese also seem to have botched things by keeping people on that cruise ship. I say this because I really have no way of knowing how serious it really is.

The Australian, UK and US governments seem to have the problem in hand. Not sure I believe that. Pretty sure almost all governments we lie to 'we the people' about all kinds of things, to avoid panic and to minimise political fallout.

I hope it will be fine and realistically think it probably will be. In the meantime,I'm keeping my wits about me,I need to because I'm over 70 so especially vulnerable. Hope they manage to bring out a vaccine fairly soon.

LogicFTW's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

Seem's like the Chinese have made a pig's breakfast of the issue.

I will have to agree there. China's desire to control the flow of information on this may prove fatal to a lot of people.

Hope they manage to bring out a vaccine fairly soon.

Experts are saying a vaccine (if possible) is a year out, best case scenario.

However they are trying alternative medicines, like aids medication + a few others, even in combination, in hopes that it will help. The results are not yet in on that and my guess we won't know for another couple of weeks.

David Killens's picture
This is the pandemic the WHO

This is the pandemic the WHO has feared, but expected. There are two areas I will discuss, how lethal and what COVID-2019 is, and the different epidemic protocols each nation practice.

Obviously, COVID-2019 can be lethal. From Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

"According to WHO, based on analysis of 44,000 cases of COVID-19 in Hubei province, around 80% of patients only have a mild form of the disease, 14% developed more severe disease such as pneumonia, 5% have critical disease, and 2% of cases are fatal."

"It is primarily spread between people via respiratory droplets from the coughs and sneezes. Officials in Shanghai confirmed several transmission modes, including direct transmission, contact transmission and aerosol transmission, the latter two involving transmission when someone touches a surface contaminated with tainted respiratory droplets and inhalation of air contaminated with tainted respiratory droplets."

"The length of the incubation period before the onset of symptoms is estimated to be between two and ten days by the World Health Organization and between two and 14 days by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)"

Now the ugly part.

Each nation have different protocols and methods in dealing with epidemics, and it appears that China and Japan have completely screwed the pooch on this one.

China is basically isolating different areas. But based on the numbers and daily death numbers, it is not very effective. Either the treatment is sub-par, the containment procedures are failed, or a combination of both. We may never know the answer to that question, China controls information.

We know of this cruise ship, and two days ago I watched an interview of a man who was the son (who has been in phone contact) of his mother and father trapped on that ship. The father and son are both doctors, so they know enough to understand what is going on and how to treat infectious diseases.

The son says it is a complete and utter fail. The ship has not been altered to deal with an epidemic, they do not have green and red zones, zero epidemic specialists on board, and the passengers are being treated by the ship's company, basically poorly educated cleaners and stewards.

I live in Canada. Exactly two weeks ago the first Canadians were flown to a military base in Trenton, they were properly handled, and they are being released today.

Old man shouts at clouds's picture
The epicentre of infection

The epicentre of infection in Korea was a church...were they praying wrong or something?

David Killens's picture
@ Old man

@ Old man

And as the congregation left the service, the pastor was standing at the door, shaking everyone's hand.

That is how it was done in my previous church.

algebe's picture
@David Killens: shaking

@David Killens: shaking everyone's hand.

I worry about those churches where people drink out of the same cup and have crackers shoved in their mouths out of the bare hand of a priest.

LogicFTW's picture
@Thread

@Thread

Bringing religion and superstition into it, The New York Times had an excellent article titled something like: "Why China" I can go find the link if anyone is interested.

The author discussed 2 main reasons:
1: China's government way of doing things in terms of handling epidemic scares, especially information control.
2: There is a actually rather small percentage of people, that have many superstitions surrounding food. Especially exotic food. The most famous being tiger parts = virility for men. Worse still there are large markets of live exotic animals, and a culture that likes to eat all kinds of parts of the animals fresh as possible and/or raw thinking this will magnify the desired superstitious effect. Additionally these markets are rarely properly regulated with safety and cleanliness often times being overlooked.

The NYT article explains it much better/great detail, but superstition may well play a central role of the origin of the entire covid-19 epidemic. Just like SARS back what? 15 years ago?

Sometimes peoples seemingly harmless traditions and superstitions can have deadly consequences for others that do not share in that superstition. I imagine many of our theist brethren may even agree, but never understand the hidden consequences of their own beliefs, and when so unevidenced, could easily be called... superstitions.

algebe's picture
I've heard a couple of

I've heard a couple of theories about the origin of COVID-19. One is that it's a zoonotic disease transferred from bats, etc., sold for food at the fish market in Wuhan, the other that it's something that escaped from a germ warfare lab near Wuhan.

Either way, the disease doesn't seem to be particularly lethal. The death rate of 2% is based on known cases, but in most patients the symptoms are so mild that they not even know they have it. So it's likely that the actual infection rate is far higher than official figure. We have accurate figures for fatalities, but not for infections. t doesn't seem to affect children much, but older people, especially long-term smokers and people with underlying medical conditions, are at risk.

Japan is doing its best to contain the disease. Apart from the cases on the cruise ship, the number of home-grown infections is quite low. Unlike China, Japan can't put 10s of millions of people under house arrest. However, many big companies are switching to teleworking for office employees, and major public events are being cancelled. It'll be interesting to see what they do with the Olympics. There have been some cases of monumental stupidity though. A junior high school teacher went to work despite having symptoms, and a subway passenger hit the emergency stop button after someone coughed, causing everyone to be stuck in the tube for a prolonged period. And robbers held up a hospital in Kobe and stole several thousand masks.

The big problem for Japan and China will be economic. Factories have been shut down, and even those that have reopened are unable to find enough workers or source parts. Japanese plants all over Asia rely on parts from China. Tourism has also taken a huge hit. Japan gets 20 million visitors a year, of whom half are from China.

South Korea has become a COVID-19 hot-spot, mainly thanks to one female member of a Christian cult. You'd think diseases would spare churches out of professional courtesy, seeing as Christianity is itself a kind of viral mental infection.

ronald bertram's picture
The first thought when I

The first thought when I heard Coronavirus on the news was of my calves. There are three primary causes of scours in calves. (Scours and pneumonia are major causes of mortality in calves). Coronavirus, Rotavirus and Escherichia coli (K99). When my calves hit the ground, I give them a bolus that contains antibodies to those three pathogens. It is not a vaccine, it is antibodies much like the antibodies found in the first milk (colostrum).

David Killens's picture
I fear what may be happening

I fear what may be happening in North Korea. If it spreads there, it could be a complete horror show.

LogicFTW's picture
@David Killens

@David Killens
Yeah N Korea states they have zero cases, but it is well known 100's of thousands of N. Koreans commute to China to work.

But yeah, it is easy to freak out when you see headlines of: 100k+ infected in china! (Theorized, we can't test em all!) Then you realize 100k people is still less than 1 in 10,000 people in china. And just the normal flu's have likely infected (and killed!) far more since December in China.

I am going to take a few basic precautions, and avoid unnecessary large groups and travel, but am I worried that I or those important to me will get infected? Not yet.

algebe's picture
Here's some good news...

Here's some good news...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-22/coronavirus-vaccine-animal-testin...

...and some bad news.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-22/27-day-incubation-period-coronavi...

And how about this for perfect timing...
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/cruise-line-virgin-voyages-unveiled-s...

Question: What do you call an asymptomatic disease carrier on a Virgin cruise ship?

LogicFTW's picture
Thanks for the links Algebe.

Thanks for the links Algebe.

Question: What do you call an asymptomatic disease carrier on a Virgin cruise ship?

A firework truck crashing at high speed into a gas station?

algebe's picture
@LogicFTW

@LogicFTW

A firework truck crashing at high speed into a gas station?

Virgin Mary (remember Typhoid Mary?)

Bad joke.

boomer47's picture
"I am going to take a few

"I am going to take a few basic precautions, and avoid unnecessary large groups and travel, but am I worried that I or those important to me will get infected? Not yet."

Yair, me too. As a geriatric living alone, I have few visitors, and only one regular .. Because I suffer from social anxiety, I avoid crowds.

So far ,I've not found it necessary to take extra precautions.. It is my understanding that face masks are pretty much a waste.

I will be guided by WHO should an epidemic be declared for my city.

So far, I am encouraged by the effective way my government seems to be is dealing. I have no way of knowing how honest they are being . I remain cautiously optimistic.

LogicFTW's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

It is my understanding that face masks are pretty much a waste.

Mostly a waste to keep from getting infected, especially from tiny droplets in the air. You need an uncomfortable expensive mask for that.

For some people that are bad about touching their face/mouth, (kids esp.) a mask might at least keep them from touching something, then transferring it to their mouth/nose, before you manage to wash their hands again.

Literally a costume face mask would be better for this.

Once infected, masks can help keep coughs/sneezes/ and breathing vapor droplets IN.. making the contagious area, down to 1 foot instead of 3-6 feet (1-2 meters.) Far more in a uncovered cough/sneeze.

There is a world wide shortage of masks, of almost all types right now, go ahead and right now and see if there are any mask available on amazon prime. Everyone is already sold out for next 2-3 weeks for the most part. And guess who makes most of the world masks that you would buy? Yep, asia, so those masks are going nowhere. And panic has not even really hit yet in North America.

So the masks we have should be saved for medical workers, other vital workers if the pandemic hits your area. And then for anyone that is known to have covid-19 so they can minimize spreading it to others.

LogicFTW's picture
Update:

Update:

It is now Monday the 24th in China. Factories and nearly all business have been shut and/or running at steep losses in china for over a month now. China still has no plans to "re-open." Factories are also beginning to shut down in S. Korea, Japan, and many other asian countries. And even Italy is starting to pre-emptively shut down in europe.

In a global highly connected and sensitive supply lines, expect increasing shortages of all complex goods (especially electronics, cars, etc.) Not just from asian countries, but from nearly all complex production. The longer this goes on the worse this shortage will get.

I am just another guy on the internet, but me personally:

I would recommend any maintenance (parts needed) and purchases of goods that are reliant on asia to be produced, to be brought as soon as possible, or you may be waiting a while to get said item once local stocks run out if this corona virus continues to persist, which seems likely.

That said:
I still consider the risk of anyone not currently in a covid-19 hotspot and has not had any sustained contact with someone from one over those areas, to be at very low risk right now.

It appears new cases in China have slowed down greatly, this is really good news. But apparently it is not good enough for china to go back to work yet and unfreeze the movement of people (which is necessary for the factories to start operating again.) I think right now we should be more concerned about the economic/production/fear damage from this virus, more than the virus itself if you are not near an outbreak.

boomer47's picture
@LogFTW

@LogFTW

" You need an uncomfortable expensive mask for that."

I have box if industrial face masks. I bought them because a fixative I was using for oil pastels is toxic .Also handy for when I spray round up.--would they be any good ?,

I still think the best precaution is to bloody well stay at home if you can. I can. Always have enough food for a month.

LogicFTW's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

Definitely better than nothing. But like I said wearing them won't do much to prevent you from getting sick.
Best use is: if there one day is an outbreak in your area and you are staying home, to have some to give to anyone that comes by your house. If you end up possibly sick or caring for someone that is possibly sick, that is when they will have the most use.

algebe's picture
My son has a plague doctor

My son has a plague doctor mask that he bought for last Hallowe'en. Apparently you're supposed to stuff the nose with garlic or vinegar-soaked rags. It looks more effective than a paper mask covering just the nose and mouth.

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boomer47's picture
@Algebe

@Algebe

"My son has a plague doctor mask that he bought for last Hallowe'en. Apparently you're supposed to stuff the nose with garlic or vinegar-soaked rags. It looks more effective than a paper mask covering just the nose and mouth."

Abso-bloody-lutely

----IF the the disease is being spread by infected vampires. Otherwise, you have start of a decent salad dressing . So win-win.

Cognostic's picture
The flu season comes and goes

The flu season comes and goes every year. The elderly and the young are mostly at risk. The NEWS blows everything out of proportion to sell advertising. The anti virus companies are getting rich. The Virus masks are a joke and do not work, on top of the fact that a virus can infect you by getting into your eyes. Where are the eye guards. The virus hand goo is another joke. It does nothing to rid anyone of a virus/. If it does anything at all it sticks the virus to your skin until you touch your mouth, eyes, or someone else.

Okay, try to be safe. Avoid large crowds and "WASH YOUR HANDS OFTEN WITH SOAP AND WATER." Nothing is more effective. You don't see doctors smearing their hands with goop prior to a surgery do you. THEY USE SOAP AND WATER. This knocks the virus from your hands.

algebe's picture
@Cognostic: "WASH YOUR HANDS

@Cognostic: "WASH YOUR HANDS OFTEN WITH SOAP AND WATER." Nothing is more effective.

And try to avoid touching faucets, door handles, etc., after washing your hands. I'm not sure whether air dryers are better than paper towels, but I think they're both preferable to the old fabric roller towels.

LogicFTW's picture
I am high but, my guess is:

My guess is:
just shake your hands < use your clothes < un maintained towel roll machine < children height blow dryers <
As list you should never use/do.

Then:
Rub them mostly dry < use toilet paper < walk to a location that has next tier below, while looking like a weirdo (wet hands at side)

Maintained blow dryer < paper towels (expensive and wasteful) < no touch automated paper towel dispenser (very expensive)

boomer47's picture
Huffpost today

Huffpost today

Always interesting to keep an eye on stock markets whenever there is any kind if crisis---seems the market has tanked since the coronavirus left Asia

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/stock-markets-coronavirus_ca_5e53e47...

The WHO has warned that the world should be ready for a pandemic

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-pandemic-who_n_5e541...

Completely off topic; gratified to learn that Harvey Weinstein has been found guilty of rape and is in prison awaiting sentence. He faces a maximum of 25 years .

algebe's picture
@Cranky47: Harvey Weinstein

@Cranky47: Harvey Weinstein has been found guilty

Yes. He's part of the vile Hollywood "casting couch" tradition going all the way back to Charlie Chaplin.

I was shattered to learn that that crumbling mound of ancient corruption shambling into court with his Zimmer frame is six days younger than me.

boomer47's picture
@Algebe

@Algebe

"I was shattered to learn that that crumbling mound of ancient corruption shambling into court with his Zimmer frame is six days younger than me'

He's only chronologically younger than you. Inside he's just a really old really dirty old man, about 97 mentally I think. .

Zimmer frame ? Didn't know they had a special name. We've always just called them walkers. So far, I've only needed a cane sometimes ---If I do a lot of walking my knee can collapse . Have to sit down to up shoelaces or I can fall over. . Very annoying and embarrassing .

algebe's picture
@Cranky: Inside he's just a

@Cranky: Inside he's just a really old really dirty old man, about 97 mentally

LOL. I'm just a dirty old man with a mental age of about 18.
But unlike priests, preachers, politicians, and producers, I find using and abusing people abhorrent.

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