COVID-19

315 posts / 0 new
Last post
cranky47's picture
My favourite anecdote about

My favourite anecdote about a large pond scum company is about Nestle

A few decades ago, don't know if they're still doing it . In rural Africa. Nestle sent women to villages dressed in white ,to look like nurses. These women convinced impoverished mothers that Nestle baby formula us better than mother's milk .

So naturally ,the mothers bought this stuff for their babies. Hands up all those who can see a possible problem ?

There were two problems. Often no access to clean water, so unclean water was used Result; babies dead due to dehydration as the result of diarrhoea. Because the formula is expensive, the mothers would water it down. Result ; babies dead from malnutrition.

As far as I'm aware, Nestle was never prosecuted. --and that's why I haven't knowingly bought a Nestle product in over 30 years.

Anyway, Huffpost today; France; a 60 year old French person has died overnight from coronavirus . A second French death has been announced today----

Any dead Americans in the US yet? Of course I hope there are none. I just can't help but wonder at the possible response of the Trump administration to a declared pandemic. The mind boggles. ( A Trump spokesman recently falsely claimed that the virus has been contained in the US)

Personal anecdote about ratbag businessman for whom I worked ,in 1966. Small wholesaler. 500 lines. One of which was oil . He sold several different kinds of oil. All of the oil came from the same large tin. I think he tried it when he ran out of some oils. When nobody complained, he simply kept doing it.

Another time he had a large batch of tinned jams, which had 'popped' .(meaning they were contaminated)

No probs, he would simply open them all, scrape off the mould and put them in new jars with his label. He was bemused when I became a bit exercised.

Oh, he was a real scamp, Mr "I-don't-pay-over- time-I give -bonuses-at-Xmas" . Obviously, I worked zero over time.

Nyarlathotep's picture
I'm guessing the cat is out

I'm guessing the cat is out of the bag; that this thing is going to spread big time. I hope the mortality rate stays low.

cranky47's picture
@ Nyarlathotep

@ Nyarlathotep

Huffpost today Sunday march 1.

First American death from coronavirus.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/coronavirus-washington-state-nur...

Australia has been put into formal pandemic mode from February 27. . Yet again I'm so grateful we are an island. ----But so is Japan (OK, several big islands, thousands of tiny ones) How did they manage to fuck things up so spectacularly?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdTS2_N5jik

--I'm over 70, and not in robust health.If I come down with that virus , I could easily die.

On a lighter note, Sydney celebrated its annual Gay Mardi Gras. Long clip below. Kicked off as usual by ' Dykes On Bikes'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FveGA31EVM

LogicFTW's picture
@Nyarlathotep

@Nyarlathotep

I'm guessing the cat is out of the bag; that this thing is going to spread big time.

Agreed, I think it would be pretty naive to think most any country is going to be immune to this.

I hope the mortality rate stays low.

As far as I can tell, there is good reason to think this, that mortality rates will stay low. And possibly even go lower.

.

I am predicting death rates will be under 1% in areas of decent population health + healthcare system, and in areas that do not, higher mortality rates. Pretty much like any other infectious disease.

I think the economic and side effects of covid 19 (mostly fear based) will be far worse than the virus itself. Or certainly the potential for this. This is the part that scares me.

Algebe's picture
LogicFTW: I think the

LogicFTW: I think the economic and side effects of covid 19 (mostly fear based) will be far worse than the virus itself.

Absolutely. On the bright side, there are some real bargains in investment markets right now. When a vaccine is finally developed, there's going to be a colossal boom.

While we panic about a disease with a very low mortality rate, many times more people have been dying from old favorites like malaria and measles.

Nyarlathotep's picture
In the past few days, several

In the past few days, several special cased have found (tested positive); special in that these exposures can not be traced to known sources. In my completely uninformed and perhaps totally wrong opinion: the moose is loose here.

Old man shouts at clouds's picture
On the good news front the

On the good news front the Church responsible for the virus running loose in Korea has been charged with murder.....

Nyarlathotep's picture
Link to youtube WHO briefing

Link to youtube WHO briefing from today about virus.

Seems slightly better than I thought.

cranky47's picture
@Nyarlathotep

@Nyarlathotep

Huff Post US this morning Tues 3 March,

Six dead from virus in US.

Mercifully, still "only" one in Oz.

My close friend is already panicking about the virus. He will be isolating in his house; not coming over for dinner or going to restaurants, which he usually does a couple of times a week. Nor ordering meals in .Now this is a brilliant aware man. The mind boggles to imagine what 'we the people' will do. Hospitality, theatres, cinemas especially could lose billions. I hate to think about the stock market.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-deaths-update-washington_n_5e...

OT; a positive outcome; because of their slowdown, pollution in China has dropped dramatically.

LogicFTW's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

This is essentially what I am doing, and it is not even confirmed cases of community transmission in my area yet. (I suspect that will change within a few days.)

And I am not even that worried about covid-19 myself. I am actually more concerned about getting sick or injured from anything for at least the next month or so. Last place in the world you want to be is at a hospital for at least the next month or so.

I am real concerned about the global economic and cultural damage.

I recommend to anyone, any complex item, (large global supply chain required.) That they may need to buy in the next 6 months or so, to do so now while they still can.

As for good news:
1. There is plenty of signs that outside of Wuhan, the "death rate" is at 1% or lower. If you are healthy, this virus is not likely to kill you at all.

2. Markets recovered some Monday. China still seeing reduced numbers, and is starting to go back to work.

3. Every day there is not a major outbreak in your area, is another day for everyone to better prepare. Another day closer to finding more info about the virus, and another day for vaccines to get tested and created. And possibly the most important: another day for the world to ramp up production of effective virus screening.

CyberLN's picture
My rheumatologist has an

My rheumatologist has an office in a major medical center (public hospital) in our city. She just contacted me and suggested we have our scheduled appointment (this Friday) by phone so I wouldn’t have to be in contact with so many symptomatic people who are coming in to the facility. Six have died from this virus in this area.
I’ll admit that I am nervous about it.

cranky47's picture
@ LogicFTW\

@ LogicFTW\

" Last place in the world you want to be is at a hospital for at least the next month or so.'

Hadn't thought of that, but yair., although I dislike hospitals at the best of times. There are bugs you don't usually get anywhere else you can get in hospitals, and that's at the best of times. .

"I recommend to anyone, any complex item, (large global supply chain required.) That they may need to buy in the next 6 months or so, to do so now while they still can."

Not quite with you. Like what, a car or TV?

I usually avoid crowds anyway. So far all I'm doing is being scrupulous about washing my hands whenever I get home from the supermarket especially I also buy a LOT of gear on EBAY. Guess I should also wash on receipt of goods.

Perhaps I'll also stock up on say long life milk and a few other things of which I use a lot, to minimises my trips. I usually have enough food for a month, without rationing.

I don't think people here are panicking yet, but I don't think it will take a lot more.

"Every day there is not a major outbreak in your area, is another day for everyone to better prepare. Another day closer to finding more info about the virus, and another day for vaccines to get tested and created. And possibly the most important: another day for the world to ramp up production of effective virus screening"

Absolutomundo!

Right now, everything is just fucking dandy.

ADDENDUM: I read that the Japanese fiasco was because theJapanese did not set up proper pandemic protocols. At that stage they probably [understandably ] didn't think the issue was all that serious .

Here In Australia, my government is sensibly using an approach of an excess of caution .Pandemic measures have been taken since February 27.

Of course in the US you have Trump and his merry band of scamps. They naturally claimed the issue was under control when it was not. Do those people EVER tell the truth?

LogicFTW's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

Not quite with you. Like what, a car or TV?

Yes that includes cars and tv's. Most all "electronics." But eventually it will effect just about every single thing you can think of, if factories world wide stay shut, and continue to shut down as the virus spreads.

First will be the fact that the usual enormous cargo ships from China have not been filling up and shipping across the pacific. It will be a slightly delayed effect, (due to the time to cross the ocean.) But we should start feeling those effects now. Expect certain items to sell out at big box stores and not get replaced for at least a month.

But then the more serious global supply chain disruption will kick in. Companies that make finished products that people buy, even if they could get back online, will not have the parts available to them make the products. Probably because, the companies that make that part, don't have the even smaller parts to make that step. And we can even go back as far as the base materials. It will take some time to restart this process again. Once it is allowed to restart.

It is not all doom and gloom however. It does seem much of the healthy working population should be (hopefully!) mostly escape the worst effects of the virus.

And I do believe, if everyone starts going back to work soon, the economic and supply damage will be short lived.

Algebe's picture
@LogicFTW: But then the more

@LogicFTW: But then the more serious global supply chain disruption will kick in

Most big manufacturers use Toyota's "just-in-time" strategy. Materials and parts arrive just in time to be fed into production, and no big stockpiles are maintained. It's very cost-efficient, but supply chains have become so vast and complex, that if any link is broken the whole thing collapses. They experienced that on a smaller scale after Japan's earthquake-Tsunami disaster. We'll probably experience this soon as shortages of spare parts for electronic devices and vehicles.

We're now seeing the first signs of panic. People are emptying store shelves of things that are unlikely to be affected, such as toilet rolls. Opportunists are already offering overpriced toilet rolls on e-Bay. The opportunities for exploitation are rife. In Japan after the first oil shock in 70s, people became conditioned to expect shortages. Trading companies took advantage by deliberately holding back supplies of various goods to create panics--first gasoline, then toilet paper, soy sauce, sugar, salt, even cabbages...

The most dangerous effect of the COVID-19 outbreak is panic. And panic is a religious phenomenon named after the god Pan. Human beings are vulnerable to panic, and it leaves us open to exploitation by politicians, religions, and unscrupulous businesses.

LogicFTW's picture
Yep.

@Algebe

Yep.

A "just in time" system leads to less fixed/sunk costs, of which they the manufacturer can reduce their price and grab market share over the guys that keep warehouses of parts incase of a shock in supply.

Most people do not realize it, but there is an enormous price that most people do not realize, when you can buy a 32 inch tv for 80-90 dollars at your local store (or shipped to your home.) When it works, it is amazing, especially at that price point, but it becomes highly vulnerable to shock in the system.

A basic tv, with 2 million pixels, with a processor able to process all that in real time. (This would of taken a super computer 20 years ago.) This same basic TV requires specialized parts from all over the world, or if we were try to narrow it down to one most important country: China. Followed maybe, (at least in the tv world) S. Korea.

Fortunately we do not need more tv's in the world. The old tv's are mostly just fine, and should last a long time.

However there is other electronics etc that are far more important. Especially medical equipment.

Probably one way to think of it is: think of costco or walmart, target, etc minus the food side of things. A disruption from china/s.Korea asia means once local supplies and supplies that were already in transit get exhausted, those items are not going to be replaced for a while.

In the US anyways, the big box stores can't really adjust their prices based on availability, they basically are handcuffed to a price and cannot really change it, especially the "MSRP" they can go lower than MSRP, but can not really go higher without major backlash, so those places will sell out pretty quick, then online, there is no price controls. Certainly on sites like ebay. But even amazon, I have seen basic surgical masks (that should cost less than 10 cents per mask, if bought in bulk, sky rocket to 4-5 dollars per mask. With some kids on ebay selling a single mask for $10.00 or more. A 100x increase in price.

Masks are an extreme example right now, but if supplies continue to dwindle, expect this to happen to other products that rely heavily on asia for parts or for the whole product, (almost everything.)

It is weird for me to think that old dusty box of masks I have in my garage that I bought years ago, for a woodworking hobby I started but later abandoned, I could now sell probably nearly instantly for 100's of dollars. And they are near useless for preventing infection of covid-19 to the general public. I will actually ask my friends/family in the medical care industry if they want them. (For free of course.)

cranky47's picture
@LogicFTW

@LogicFTW

"Yes that includes cars and tv's. Most all "electronics." But eventually it will effect just about every single thing you can think of, if factories world wide stay shut, and continue to shut down as the virus spreads"

Ah, well, I bought a brand new car last year. Have two big screen TV's; bought the last one on Ebay about 2 years ago. The Imac is 4 years old, and humming away . Laptop about 2 years old. Also bought on Ebay. Phone, 2 years old, also Ebay. Stove and Fridge a couple of years old ---I'm sure you get the idea. I rarely wait for a thing to break before I buy a new one.

What can I say. I love new tech and shiny new things. Today a burr coffee grinder ,bought locally.

With a bit of luck,I should be OK until the virus epidemic ends. Unless of course it gets as bad as the great flu epidemic of 1918. In that case I may be cactus.

Daniel's picture
I know this isnt the place

I know this isnt the place but it's my first post and Im upset. I live in Nashville and last night a tornado hit us causing many deaths, up to 22 now across the state. I get angry when I see people posting online about how grateful they are for "Gods hand" in protecting when he couldn't have given a fuck about protecting the 22 who died from a storm he could've stopped. Do you guys have recommendations on how to approach people about this or should I just vent here instead? Grrr

Attachments

Attach Image/Video?: 

No
LogicFTW's picture
@Daniel

@Daniel

Welcome to the forums! We always encourage people to sign up and post and join the conversation!

My recommendation: vent here.

If you stick around and post/read here, I think you will find out fairly quickly for yourself, that most any person that says stuff like "gods hand" are ultimately not interested in hearing about how they might have it wrong.

I hope you and everyone you care for in the Nashville area is okay. This would be top headline national news, (in the US,) if it was not Super Tuesday, and ofcourse, the whole covid-19 thing.

I fully agree with you though, it bugs me when people say thoughts and prayers, at some natural disaster. To me they might as well be (to them) politely saying: "sucks to be you, and I am not going to do anything but say: [insert quick one liner here like: "thoughts and prayers,"] that hopefully gets me out of doing anything further.

If you are capable and willing, perhaps when talking to these people, say something like: "anything else you can offer to help besides talk?" maybe volunteer to clean up, or donate a few bucks, and so on.

Algebe's picture
Hello Daniel:

Hello Daniel:

Welcome to the forums.

I'm so sorry to hear about the disaster where you live. Those comments by Christians sound like pure selfishness to me. They survived by pure chance, but they attribute their good luck to the hand of god while completely disregarding the tragedies around them.

I think you should start a new thread for this in the Debate Room.

cranky47's picture
@ Daniel

@ Daniel

So sorry to hear of your terrible disaster. In your place, I'd be distraught and enraged at the morons .

"Do you guys have recommendations on how to approach people about this or should I just vent here instead? Grrr"

That's tough one. I don't suppose you can simply shoot them?

I don't even try with such morons on line. I guess you could just swear at them EG " you are an ignorant, inbred ,redneck cunt . I hope you never breed". Of course that may simply make said inbred feel martyred.

Seriously; Isn't Tennessee in the heart of the bible belt? Not sure it would be safe to rant at them in person and would change exactly nothing .

Perhaps better to just rant here, all you want.

ilovechloe's picture
My prediction is that the USA

My prediction is that the USA already has many thousands of cases, right throughout all the US states. The no. of tests that have been performed is only in the 100's. The virus has already been spreading for weeks in the U.S., & once they start doing tests in meaningful numbers this will become apparent.

I suspect that my own country Australia also has far many more infections than reported, probably at least in the many 100's, & it is only a matter of weeks before it is in the 1000's. This virus is going to be almost impossible to control now. The only way to do it would be to take drastic measures like China did, & close down the entire economy for 2 months, which western governments won't do.

Most governments are reacting, rather than being pro-active. You cant be reactive in cases like this, because by the time you react, it is already too late.

cranky47's picture
@ilovechloe

@ilovechloe

Oh how a love a cynic .(because they're like me)

In 1974. I was working in town.

One lunch time I was leaving the building and ---bump--''walked into Alvin Wangelemurtzel , erstwhile schoolfriend and mathematical genius who was now a doctor. Turned out he had just come down from Darwin, where he worked ,in Darwin Hospital . He looked ghastly, as if he hadn't slept for a week.This turned out to be true. He told me that the actual death toll from Tracy was in the thousands, not hundred.,

.Now I realise this anecdotal, and I can't prove it

.---It was from that day that I began to develop a healthy contempt for politicians of all flavours . Whitlam was in office. I was stunned by the mendacity; I voted for that bastard.

As for this virus; I'm being as careful as I can, but have not yet begun to isolate myself. "I've been told" That people in my age bracket have a 7% chance of dying if we catch the virus.

"Most governments are reacting, rather than being pro-active. You cant be reactive in cases like this, because by the time you react, it is already too late."

It is almost always thus with most governments. Notable exceptions seem to be dictatorships, who maintain ever alert police,,secret police and army, to protect them from their citizens'. Also from other countries, about whom they are [understandably) quite paranoid.

On this occasion our government has been slightly proactive, going into pandemic mode before it has been declared .

The WHO has warned to be prepared for a pandemic. That frightens the crap out of me. Apart from sensible precautions what does one do?

What exactly is that fortress of incompetency, sycophancy, and paranoia, Team Trump, doing I wonder? Telling we the people everything is under control? The scary thing is that millions of dumb crunts will believe them.

It has occurred to me every survivalist in the US especially will be laughing up their sleeves.

PS what are you doing with a picture of Clint Eastwood ?

ilovechloe's picture
@ cranky47

@ cranky47

you wrote: "PS what are you doing with a picture of Clint Eastwood ?"

Are you inferring that I look like I'm nearly 90 years old? Its just an illusion based on the fact that the pic is turned on its side. Makes me look much older than I really am!

cranky47's picture
@ilovechloe

@ilovechloe

It's a joke Joyce. I but was taking the Michael

CyberLN's picture
https://bedford.io/blog/

https://bedford.io/blog/

This is a blog by Trevor Bedford - https://www.fredhutch.org/en/faculty-lab-directory/bedford-trevor.html - with very interesting data about COVID 19.

It’s worth following as it provides information sans hysteria.

cranky47's picture
@CyberLN

@CyberLN

Thanks for the link.

One school in Sydney closed today because a student tested positive for the virus

Locally: Needed to go shopping yesterday. The supermarket opens at 6.30 AM,. I went at around 8, not at all busy.

I SAW PANIC BUYING of all things; TOILET PAPER. One woman had a trolley full ????????

There was no rolled oats or hand cleanser. What's wrong with those people?

My 450 lb mate is isolating . If he catches the virus he could die. At present, I'm carrying on as usual, avoiding crowds as usual. HAVE been washing my hands a lot more.

Nyarlathotep's picture
Hand cleanser I get, but a

Hand cleanser I get, but a run on rolled oats? Weird.

Algebe's picture
@cranky47

@cranky47

I went to Woolworths yesterday. There were empty shelves all over the place. I thought I'd somehow landed in East Germany or North Korea.

The puzzling thing about the toilet paper hoarders is that they seem too dim to find their own arses, let alone wipe them. This idiot even got arrested for fighting Big W staff and police over toilet paper.

https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6664288/man-charged-with-at...

Old man shouts at clouds's picture
I find it hilarious that hand

I find it hilarious that hand sanitiser is sold out but disposable gloves are fully stocked...like duuuuh Aussies......

Nyarlathotep's picture
I don't know if it has

I don't know if it has anything to do virus stuff; but the local store has been out of a certain major brand of soda for a few days.

/e Or at least the shelves look decimated by the time I get to the store.

Pages

Donating = Loving

Heart Icon

Bringing you atheist articles and building active godless communities takes hundreds of hours and resources each month. If you find any joy or stimulation at Atheist Republic, please consider becoming a Supporting Member with a recurring monthly donation of your choosing, between a cup of tea and a good dinner.

Or make a one-time donation in any amount.