I hope to keep this thread updated with the current odds (from sports books) for the POTUS race. I've decided to go with UK fractional odds as they are probably the easiest to understand.
Understanding the numbers:
--this section has been edited to simplify it---
The number listed is how much you would win (profit) if you bet $1 on that candidate and they win.
Why:
I'm not suggesting people should gamble, but I am of the opinion that sports books provide the most unbiased predictions for political contests. This opinion is somewhat controversial. Now for today's post:
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Clinton has recently gained a bit more of a lead:
Clinton: 1/3
Trump: 3/1
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Clinton: 0.307
Trump: 2.540
Clinton: 0.309
Trump: 2.690
Clinton: 0.393
Trump: 1.940
Clinton: 0.474
Trump: 1.639
Wow, Trump getting closer to getting his hands on the Nuclear codes.
That's impossible man, this can't be happening!
Attachments
Attach Image/Video?:
Clinton: 0.452
Trump: 1.700
Clinton: 0.390
Trump: 1.915
Finally some motion away from Trump.
He feels it too. He now predicts that the election will be rigged:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/02/donald-trump-us-election...
But has he forgotten that he doesn't care about that the system is rigged?
When he won over Ted Cruz, he clearly said so:
"You've been hearing me say it's a rigged system, but now I don't say it anymore because I won. It's true. Now I don't care. I don't care," - Donald Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppdS0JEK0io&feature=youtu.be&t=35
It's moving in the less bad direction, thank god!
Oh wait, which god should I thank? I forget...
In the (excuse my language) clusterfu**k that is religion, I'm surprised the theists themselves think they know which God they follow.
Clinton: 0.373
Trump: 2.020
I know I just posted 6 hours ago, but things seem to be moving quickly right now.
Nyarlathotep:
I would imagine that there be a particular sort of person to whom sports books appeal, such that the average political spread be skewed in favor of Trump. I'm not yet saying that you're wrong to try to use them, I just wondered why you think that they are among the less biased ways to accurately predict election results.
M. V. Reeves - "I just wondered why you think that they are among the less biased ways to accurately predict election results."
Money talks, bullshit walks?
But seriously, it something an associate of mine has been working on for a few years, and it has kind of got my attention. That's all.
Clinton: 0.309
Trump: 2.430
Big changes since the conventions.
I just moved here, and the presidential situation already looks bleak. Damn.
The risk is that Trump pulls out all together. What then?!
I heard some pundit talking about this the other day. He said the RNC could replace the candidate and get a new one on enough ballot if the pull out was before September 1st. I have no idea if that is accurate.
On a related topic: The odds for Ryan have been improving (I haven't been posting them as they didn't seem important). Ryan has gone from 500 (average) to 56 (average), and as high as 10 in one sports book.
/e OK scratch that result of 10 for Ryan from that one sports book. I did a little digging they don't don't give long odds on anything; in fact the longest odds they give is about 10. So their rating of 10 don't mean much.
The Pragmatic - "The risk is that Trump pulls out all together. What then?!"
A star appeared next to Ryan's name on one of the sites I get data from, it linked to this article:
http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv-and-specials/20160804-us-election-tru...
I fear that Ted Cruz will be the runner up. But I don't know much about Paul Ryan, is he better or worse than Ted Cruz?
Not much different, imo.
I guess the nicest thing I can say about Cruz and Ryan is at least they aren't anti-vaxxers or birthers; unlike Trump.
Clinton: 0.293
Trump: 2.610
Hillary Clinton: 0.259
Donald Trump: 2.962
Hillary Clinton: 0.254
Donald Trump: 2.990
Honestly, I don't care about the election anymore. I've accepted the fact that both candidates are complete (pardon me) shit. This country is screwed either way, so I'm just gonna sit back and watch everything unfold.
Still, I think it's better to choose the lesser of two evils.
True enough, I suppose. Fortunately, I can't vote but if I had to, I guess Trump.
Then I'm happy that you can't vote! :)
XD Yeah I don't know, I just think I couldn't let myself vote for someone as crooked as Hillary. Even though Trump is probably just as bad in those regards, it's just not evident enough. Either way we lose. If we get Hillary, we get someone who will only look out for her own self interest. If we vote for Trump, we get a messed up asshole with a screwed up ideology. I honestly can't tell which is more harmful.
Although I kind of like the wall idea XD
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